Thursday, June 25, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., June 25…regular $3.91…diesel $4.95
Interesting day for oil and gas. Early in the morning, West Texas Intermediate traded down to $69, a level not seen since the day before the war started, but it rallied back to $71.50…and above.
Gasoline futures got all the way down to $2.80, but then they, too, roared back, hitting $3.00, a big reversal.
$3.00 is a key figure in terms of keeping the national average at the pump below $4.00.
Traders have been monitoring shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the Omani coast.
Reported by the maritime group UKMTO, the incident renewed safety concerns regarding the vital shipping corridor and fueled anxieties over Iran dictating transit while negotiating a permanent end to its war with the U.S. Several commercial ships reversed course, threatening the normalization of regional oil flows.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp was then reported to be behind the attack. This is big. A new Iranian entity, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, also essentially said it controlled the Strait.
At 2:38 PM ET, the PGSA posted on X:
“PGSA, in response to repeated inquiries announces:
“Any passage through routes outside the framework designated by PGSA will not be covered by safe passage guarantees and will not be entitled to insurance coverage or related liabilities.
“The consequences arising from passage through unauthorized routes shall be the responsibility of the owner, operator, and vessel commander.”
[As I go to post, no reply from President Trump as yet.]
The plot thickens….
Despite the disruption, Saudi Arabian tankers continued toward the major Ras Tanura terminal to resume Persian Gulf exports for the first time since March, and Qatar issued its first post-war crude tender.
Market attention remains fixed on a potential 2026 global supply surplus, prompting Iraq to demand a higher OPEC production quota. In the U.S., tightness persisted as stockpiles at Cushing fell below operational requirements to 19 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories remained 5% below the five-year average, indicating that supplies were still relatively tight by historical standards.
On the economic data front, we had an important reading on May inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer.
There were no surprises, the PCE up 0.4%, 4.1% year-over-year. On core, ex-food and energy, the figures were 0.3% and 3.4%, this last number the money ball for the Fed, the highest since Oct. 2023.
While the 4.1% will get the headlines, with the steep decline in energy prices in June, that is likely to be the peak. But the core figure, taking out energy, 3.4%, is far above the Fed’s target of 2%, which new chair Kevin Warsh made clear at his first press conference was very much his target.
Ergo, no rate cuts for a while, and the market anticipates a rate hike by year end.
We also had a final look at first-quarter GDP, an upwardly revised 2.1%.
On the equity front, after I posted last night, Micron Technology issued its earnings report and knocked it out of the park, the memory and storage chip maker’s shares soaring 15% in response.
Today, Apple, as telegraphed recently, raised the prices of its Macs and iPads, a week after CEO Tim Cook said the soaring costs of memory and storage chips would force the company’s hand (see Micron).
The price for Mac computers rose roughly 15% to 20% and iPad prices rose 15% to 25%.
IPhone prices were unchanged, though the company hinted at more increases in a statement.
“We have now reached a point where we need to begin raising prices,” it said. “We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly.”
Micron executives, who typically offer cautious projections about the boom-bust memory business, said on their earnings call that “tight conditions” will persist beyond 2027. Just three months ago, they had projected tight conditions going only beyond this year.
Yes, inflation. The Fed is watching.
Finally, our thoughts and prayers to the people of Venezuela, suffering mightily after two massive earthquakes yesterday of 7.2 and 7.5, the strongest in the country since 1900. The death toll is likely to soar into the thousands and the damage to infrastructure is immense. They need help.
—
Dow Jones +71…+0.1% [51920]
S&P 500 -0.70…-0.1% [7357]
Nasdaq -118…-0.5% [25358]
Oil (WTI) $71.95…Brent $75.20
Gold $4025
Silver $57.80
Bitcoin $59,228 [4:00 PM ET…$125,000 was the all-time high in Oct.]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.12%
10-yr. 4.39%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.62%
Check out my ‘Week in Review,’ published every Friday around 4:30 PM ET.
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