[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,418
At the start of the U.S. war against Iran, President Trump released a video in which he boldly listed his goals and hopes for the military operation. Trump exhorted Iranian demonstrators to take over their government and vowed to confront the “wicked, radical dictatorship” in Tehran with devastating force.
Months earlier, as tens of thousands of protesters were being slaughtered, he threatened the Iranian regime and then did nothing.
The Wall Street in an editorial Tuesday, noted “The Trump Administration is working overtime to sell its deal with Iran and assail anyone who questions sanctions relief for the regime that has massacred thousands of its own people. So points for political courage to Montana Republican Sen. Tim Sheehy.
“ ‘I hope that Vice President Vance and [Jared] Kushner and [Steve] Witkoff are successful in convincing Iran to be a normal country and to open their minds and stop trying to murder their neighbors and destroy the world,’ the former Navy SEAL said on Fox this week.
“ ‘But the reality is this is a murderous regime’ that doesn’t care about gas prices or opening up the Strait of Hormuz, he said. ‘They want you and your family and all of us to be killed. They want to wipe our civilization off the map. That’s their national motto.’ The core conceit of Mr. Trump’s deal is that Iran wants to be a ‘normal country,’ as Mr. Vance puts it.
“Mr. Sheehy also offered remedial education about America’s friends in the Middle East, especially Israel. ‘Let’s not forget Pakistan hid [Osama] bin Laden for a decade’ and ‘Qatar’s been laundering money for terrorist organizations for decades.’ To watch the Administration for the past several days, you’d think the biggest impediment to peace in the Middle East is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“That a GOP Senator is making these points is a warning to Mr. Trump that his peace deal with Iran may not be a political winner….
“But the politics are secondary to whether the deal with Iran will make the U.S. safer. Mr. Sheehy also offered a point about the criticism of ‘forever wars.’: ‘Both my wife and I are veterans of those wars. So we take that seriously.’
“But ‘you know what’s worse than a forever war in the Middle East is a forever war right here on our streets, just down the road in 9/11. The Iranians want to bring that war here….They want to create a global caliphate of Sharia law and kill all of us. And that’s not a theory. That’s what they actually try to do every day. So I think we have to remember that, and you know, having our troops fight them there is far better than us fighting them here.’”
Meanwhile, yours truly in the first weeks of the war was urging President Trump to have a sit down in the Oval Office with International Atomic Energy Agency director-general Rafael Grossi.
Grossi has been a key figure internationally for years. He is on our side. The IAEA was railroaded for years by Iran as it confronted Tehran with inspection requests.
But the average American has no idea who Grossi is unless you read a good newspaper or two.
The people need to see him because, going forward, the Trump administration is suddenly touting the IAEA and the need for Iran to allow them back in for inspections.
Grossi said this week that inspections will happen.
And today, Grossi said:
“I think the objective of this agreement is to ensure that there is no development of nuclear weapons in Iran. The government of Iran has declared quite clearly that this is not their intention.
“But of course intentions are not enough. We have to have a very strong verification system in place…as soon as is practicable,” he added.
The deal specifies that the country’s stockpile of enriched uranium should be “downblended” under IAEA supervision.
Grossi said an alternative to diluting the enriched uranium could be to ship it out of Iran.
“It would perhaps be more complicated, but there are a few technical alternatives to deal with the material.”
The U.S. and Iran have given contradictory indications as to timing and whether the watchdog will be involved. Trump said Iran has “fully and completely agreed” to future inspections, while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told Iranian state media that there are no plans to allow inspectors into the country.
Mr. President, again, get Grossi into the White House, let reporters question him, and he’ll be a tremendous advocate for your positions. What don’t you get?
If Iran doesn’t let the IAEA back in for unfettered inspections, there can be no deal. Period.
—
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, June 26…$69.45
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, June 26…regular $3.90; diesel $4.93
Diesel back below $5.00 helps, but you see it’s still $1.00+ more than last year. Everything delivered by truck still costs more as a result, and it remains a killer for farmers.
As it went down day by day….
As of Monday morning, there were signs of life in negotiations between the United States and Iran after fits and starts all weekend. Negotiators expressed optimism about a path toward reaching a permanent deal to end the conflict after the first day of talks in Switzerland.
But there are obstacles. Fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon flared over the weekend and this remains the most serious threat.
Conflicting signals over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz also underscored the fragility of the talks.
But diplomats leaving the talks early Monday morning in Switzerland put a decidedly positive spin on the negotiations, reporting progress.
Qatar and Pakistan, the two intermediaries between Iran and the U.S., emphasized in a joint statement that progress was made through the creation of a “High Level Committee” to provide political oversight of the mediation.
The committee agreed to a “roadmap” toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, the countries said. Qatar and Pakistan said they appreciated the U.S. and Iran for their “ongoing commitment to diplomacy and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.”
“Chief negotiators will report regularly to the High Level Committee and lead working groups focused on nuclear, sanctions, and a monitoring and dispute resolution group to ensure the effective implementation of the MOU [memorandum of understanding], and on other matters,” Qatar and Pakistan said in the statement.
The parties also agreed to a “de-confliction cell” that will include the U.S. and Iran and Lebanon, facilitated by Qatar and Pakistan. This cell will “ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MOU.”
The statement said technical talks will continue this week, though it was not clear if Iran and the U.S. would keep officials in Switzerland for those talks.
Earlier, there were a number of stumbling blocks, with Iran insisting there must be an end to the fighting in Lebanon, and with Tehran on Saturday saying the Strait of Hormuz was being closed once again.
Progress in ending the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah seemed to be made over the weekend when Israel’s government said its military would only take defensive actions against Hezbollah. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to root out the militant group and is under pressure from his political coalition to not give in on Israel’s security for U.S. interests.
Netanyahu also said Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon.
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are signatories to the deal between the U.S. and Iran, and now Lebanon as of Monday’s statements from Qatar and Pakistan.
The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel had caused a delay in the Switzerland meeting from Friday to Sunday and led to Iran’s top military command saying that it would once again close the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the Israeli strikes constitute a violation of the ceasefire.
The U.S. disputed that the waterway was closed, with U.S. Central Command saying commercial ship travel through the Strait increased on Saturday because of support from the U.S. military.
Trump warned Iran with sharp words on Sunday as Vice President JD Vance arrived in Switzerland.
Trump on Truth Social, Sun. 9:30 AM:
“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), however, said on Sunday that he thinks the tentative peace deal will fail.
“If you have a diplomatic path through the MOU, then you have to go to war, or some other form of coercion,” he said.
Trump told Fox News in a telephone interview Sunday that Iranian President Pezeshkian had “better watch his mouth.” The broadcaster also quoted Trump as saying Pezeshkian had “better shape up or we’ll take over the rest of the country.”
Not long after that, Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf posted on X that “We do not regard American threats as amounting to anything. They would do better to be careful about their statements.”
Pezeshkian earlier Sunday said that “what is certain is that we will never back down from the right to enrich uranium, and the other side is also forced to accept it,” according to state media.
But Monday morning, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, had managed to ease some of the tensions over Lebanon. He added Iran was beginning to see financial benefits from last week’s MOU, including waivers of U.S. sanctions on its oil exports and assets in countries such as Qatar being unfrozen.
“Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War,” Araghchi said on X. “Oil and Petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran.”
The Wall Street Journal, in an exclusive report, said “The U.S. is working with Qatar on a plan to make billions of dollars in frozen funds available to Iran for humanitarian spending, another early financial incentive under the recently signed deal to end the war, people familiar with the matter said.”
Under the deal, which would include an initial $6 billion in frozen funds held in Qatar, the Qataris would allow purchases of food, medicine and other humanitarian goods ordered by Iran’s central bank with money drawn from frozen Iranian assets, mainly cash from oil sales that has been locked up overseas by sanctions, the people said.
Vice President Vance hailed what he said was major progress during direct negotiations between Trump administration officials and their Iranian counterparts on Sunday.
“Yesterday was a very, very good day. We made a lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted to do,” Vance said Monday.
Vance was “a very good foundation” was laid for a successful, final deal.
And he announced that Tehran has agreed to permit the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country, calling it “a major milestone for the American people.”
“That’s exactly what we wanted to do. That’s exactly what we asked to happen. We made a lot of great progress on other nuclear talks,” Vance said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X, Monday:
“Under President @realDonaldTrump and @VP, we continue to make the world safer and more prosperous.
“In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country.
“As part of the framework, Treasury has issued a temporary 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil.”
But Iranian officials, who also cited progress, challenged the claim the IAEA was being let back in, saying Vance’s assertion was “false and does not reflect reality.”
On the positive side, analytics company Kpler said its tracking confirmed 71 ships traveled through the Strait between Friday and Sunday, with a peak of 35 crossings Saturday, still well below the 100-130 that made the journey before the war.
But back to Israel and the fact they aren’t signatories to the Iran agreement, Netanyahu spokesman David Mencer said:
“Israel is not party to this agreement, but we have seen with every other agreement, when it comes to the Iranian regime, they always lie, they always cheat, they never tell the truth.”
Tuesday, President Trump said Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into “infinity,” while Tehran said it had made no such concession in negotiations, raising questions about the viability of their fragile peace deal.
Addressing a rally in Pennsylvania Tuesday, Trump said negotiations with Iran were going smoothly. “We’re getting along quite well,” he said.
But in a sign of withering domestic support for the war, Trump’s poll numbers continued to weaken, while the Republican-controlled Senate defied the president and voted to halt the war, in a largely symbolic move that highlighted fissures in his party.
President Trump on Truth Social, Tues. PM:
“So, I have Iran on the ‘ropes,’ ready to go down for the fall, willing to give us practically anything, and for the first time in decades, respecting the hell out of the United States and its President, ME, and the U.S. Senate decides to have a poorly timed and meaningless War Powers Act Vote, telling the Number One Sponser [sic] of Terror in the World that the United States doesn’t like what I am doing to them, and I must stop, and by so doing has provided aid and comfort [to] the Enemy. Four Republican Losers voted with the Dumocrats, and Iran asked my people, ‘what does that all mean?’ These Senators have just made my job more difficult, but I will get it done, one way or the other, because I always get it done! President DJT”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 35% of Americans think the U.S. is now in a weaker position with Iran than before the war, while 23% believe it is in a stronger position.
In a joint statement Tuesday, Iran and Oman, which controls the other side of the Strait, stressed their “sovereign rights” in the waterway, adding that they would work together to manage traffic, along with associated costs.
Wednesday morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are ‘NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately! Additionally, no money has been given to Iran, or released from their money to them, by the U.S. We will be releasing some of their money, that is totally controlled by us, to our Farmers and Ranchers, for the purchase of Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and more. Food is desperately needed in Iran, and we will be purchasing it for them exclusively from the United States.”
President Trump was to meet with Senate Republicans for lunch at the Capitol Wednesday, and the preliminary Iran deal was expected to come up.
“When we’re five months out from a major election…you’ ve got to be pitch-perfect, and you got to execute with precision,” Sen. Tom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “We can’t surprise the president, and the administration cannot surprise us. Every time we do that between now and November, we’re diminishing our chances of holding our majorities.”
[I get into the Senate lunch with Trump down below in ‘random musings.’]
A recent poll by Israel’s Channel 12 TV found 71% of respondents felt they could no longer trust the Trump administration to safeguard Israel under the terms of the deal.
The fact that Lebanon is the first issue of the 14-point agreement also gives Iran sway to refuse to discuss more pertinent issues, like its nuclear program, until that stage of the conflict is resolved.
Thursday, in the morning oil and gas futures continued to fall, and then suddenly reversed after reports of a cargo ship being hit in the Strait.
Reported by the maritime group UKMTO, the incident renewed safety concerns regarding the vital shipping corridor and fueled anxieties over Iran dictating transit while negotiating a permanent end to its war with the U.S. Several commercial ships reversed course, threatening the normalization of regional oil flows.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp. was then reported to be behind the attack, and a new entity, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, announced it controlled the Strait, posting on X Thursday afternoon:
“PGSA, in response to repeated inquiries announces:
“Any passage through routes outside the framework designated by PGSA will not be covered by safe passage guarantees and will not be entitled to insurance coverage or related liabilities.
“The consequences arising from passage through unauthorized routes shall be the responsibility of the owner, operator, and vessel commander.”
But despite the disruption, Saudi Arabian tankers continued toward the major Ras Tanura terminal to resume Persian Gulf exports for the first time since March.
Friday, crude oil resumed its decline, as despite the attack on the cargo ship, shipping transits through the Strait accelerated, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of prewar levels.
President Trump posted on Truth Social late Friday morning:
“The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and every expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.”
There was zero reaction in the markets.
Editorial / New York Post:
“(The 14-point plan) is almost entirely about what Iran gets: Immediate sanctions relief on exported oil.
“Protection of Hezbollah from Israeli attack.
“And the possibility of a $300 billion reconstruction fund if all goes well with the next round of talks.
“No mention of Iran reining in its terror proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen.
“No restriction on conventional weapons.
“No mechanism to surrender the enriched uranium it has already created.
“No regime change or mercy for protesters.
“Trump had claimed Iran was days away from economic collapse because of the blockade.
“He said Iran’s navy and air force were ‘decimated.’
“This is the best deal we could get with the leverage we had?
“The president hasn’t just moved the goalposts, he’s changed the sport, the venue and the rules simply to declare a win….
“The more time that passes, the more Iran realizes that the threat of renewed U.S. strikes is a fiction.
“They can ‘tap us along’ until the midterms and beyond.
“Trump is already signaling as much, by ridiculously claiming the son of the ayatollah taking over is ‘regime change’ and the MOU is a victory.
“Your voters aren’t buying it, Mr. President.”
—
Wall Street and the Economy
–On the economic data front, the market was awaiting the latest personal consumption expenditures index data (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, and for May the numbers were in line with expectations. On headline, the PCE was up 0.4%, and 4.1% year-over-year, while core (ex-food and energy) rose 0.3% and 3.4%, this last figure the money ball in terms of the Fed.
The 4.1%, highest since April 2023, will garner the headlines, but with the big drop in oil prices this month, it should be the peak and traders viewed it as such, bonds rallying.
But the core, 3.4%, highest since Oct. 2023, is far above the Fed’s target of 2%, which new chair Kevin Warsh made clear at his press conference was very much his target.
So no rate cuts in the near future, and the market is instead expecting a rate hike by year end.
[As part of the PCE report, personal income and consumption were both up a strong 0.7%, above forecasts.]
We also had May new home sales, a putrid 580,000 annualized pace, down 7.3% from the month prior when an increase was expected.
And we had a final look at first-quarter GDP, an upwardly revised 2.1%, which comes after the 0.5% print for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth is 2.5%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.49%.
Next week, a big labor report for June on Thursday, the market closed next Friday, July 3rd.
—China on Monday announced sanctions on 10 American military-related companies in response to a recent U.S. move that bars some leading Chinese tech companies from defense contracts.
The Commerce Ministry said that Chinese companies would be blocked from exporting “dual-use” items to the 10 companies, which include military drone makers and some involved in rare earth mining. Dual use refers to goods that can have military as well as non-military applications.
The military said the export ban was both to safeguard China’s national security and in response to what it called the U.S. government’s “wrongful expansion of its so-called List of Chinese Military Companies.”
This was an unsurprising and proportionate response to the U.S. restrictions.
—Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Alan Greenspan, who died Monday at age 100, is being hailed in the press as a great central banker with the flaw that he didn’t endorse enough financial regulation. That narrative obscures the real success and failure of the man who presided as Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987-2006.
“The paradox of Greenspan’s career is that he presided over the best and worst modern eras of the Fed. Appointed by Ronald Reagan to replace the great Paul Volcker, Greenspan kept the Fed on the policy path of disinflation. This became known as the Great Moderation as inflation was largely contained while the U.S. economy grew in robust fashion.
“This was the era when Greenspan, supported by fellow Fed Governor Wayne Angell, followed a de facto price rule in setting monetary policy. The Fed focused on actual prices in the economy, including commodities, and Greenspan told us more than once that he even kept a wary eye on the price of gold.
“Along the way he helped prevent various financial panics from becoming more serious – most notably, the stock market plunge of 22.6% on a single day in October 1987 that became known as Black Monday. The Greenspan Fed pledge to provide adequate financial liquidity, and the panic abated. He is also rightly praised for recognizing that the 1990s productivity boom gave the Fed leeway not to raise interest rates amid faster economic growth.
“The bad turn came in the 2000s after 9/11 and the dot-com bust. Influenced by then Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, Greenspan became preoccupied with the risk of deflation. In June 2003, Greenspan cut the fed funds rate to 1% and kept it there for a year, though the second Bush tax cut had passed Congress in May and the economy had begun to surge.
“Greenspan tightened money slowly after that, despite rising oil and other commodity prices. Thus was born the great credit mania of the mid-2000s….
“Only in 2005 did Greenspan finally say publicly that housing prices had become ‘frothy.’ But by then the credit mania and housing bubble were already long building. The music stopped in 2008, producing the panic that did so much harm to the free-market economy that Greenspan had promoted.
“The Fed wasn’t alone in feeding the housing bubble, as Congress pressed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee subprime mortgages and ‘liar loans.’ To his credit, Greenspan in the 2000s was an ally of the George W. Bush White House in pressing Congress to shore up the capital standards of Fannie and Freddie. But the housing lobby owned Congress, which acted only after it was too late.
“Greenspan’s worst moment came amid the financial panic after he had retired from the Fed, when he blamed the financial meltdown on others. ‘Those of us who have looked to the self interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself especially, are in a state of shocked disbelief,’ he told Congress in October 2008
“That comment, which received enormous publicity, let the political class off the hook and fed the belief that the panic was a crisis of capitalism that needed more regulation. Greenspan never admitted the failure of monetary policy or of the regulators at the time who had allowed Citigroup and other banks to create the off-balance-sheet vehicles that failed.
“The tragedy of this career finale is that it marred what was otherwise Greenspan’s keen lifelong understanding that government can’t fine-tune the economy or create wealth. The press called Greenspan the ‘maestro.’ But he always knew that neither he nor anyone else in Washington conducted the U.S. economy.”
Europe and Asia
We had flash PMIs in the eurozone for the month of June. The composite index was 49.5 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction). Manufacturing was at 51.2, services 48.9.
Germany: Manufacturing 50.8; services 46.9 (43-mo. low).
France: mfg. 48.9; services 47.4.
UK: mfg. 53.6; services 48.7 (41-mo. low).
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:
“The eurozone economy is showing enough resilience to just about stay out of recession. The flash PMI registered only a slight drop in business activity in June, meaning the survey is indicative of unchanged GDP over the second quarter.
“There is welcome news of an easing in the recent downturn in services activity, with tourism and leisure related industries seeing signs of recovering demand after the initial disruptions from the war in the Middle East.
“Manufacturing meanwhile continues to benefit from inventory building as customers front-run future prices rises or supply issues amid ongoing supply fears linked to the war. However although widespread supply chain delays contributed to further upward pressure on prices, there are signs that concerns over supply and price trends are starting to moderate.
“Encouragingly, lower energy prices are already filtering through to businesses and rates of input cost and selling price inflation have moved lower in June as a result, hinting at a potential peaking of the recent price spike.”
Britain: President Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday morning:
“Keir Starmer will resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He failed badly on two very important subjects – IMMIGRATION AND ENERGY (OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!). I wish him well! President DJT”
Starmer then announced Monday that he will resign, succumbing to pressure from lawmakers within his own Labour Party, after crushing losses in nationwide local elections last month triggered a mutiny.
An emotional Starmer said he would leave office after a new Labour leader – and therefore a new prime minister – is selected in a leadership election that will begin in July.
Starmer, 63, in office for nearly two years, had struggled to define his agenda while contending with economic stagnation, fallout from the Epstein scandal* and turbulent relations with President Donald Trump.
*Starmer’s standing was deeply wounded by revelations about his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States despite Mandelson’s close ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who won decisively in a by-election to return him to parliament, is the presumed favorite to become Labour’s new leader. He would be the seventh prime minister in the past 10 years.
In Asia…nothing of note on the data front from China.
Japan didn’t have much either, but the flash June PMIs had manufacturing at 54.3; services 51.8…solid.
Street Bytes
— Global equity markets capped a volatile week in which shifting sentiment around the AI trade whipsawed tech stocks. South Korea’s Kospi index, highlighted by wild swings in memory chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, had wild swings up and down of basically 5% to 10% from Tues. through Friday.
Friday’s selloff in memory chip makers followed Apple Inc.’s decision to raise prices on many products, fueling concerns that rising component costs could eventually curb demand and slow the chip rally that has powered much of the rally in tech.
More on Apple below, which was tied to the Micron Technology story, Micron shares soaring after its earnings report.
On the week in the U.S., the major indices were mixed; the Dow Jones up 0.6% to 51876, but the S&P 500 fell 2.0%, and Nasdaq 4.6%.
For all the talk of a bull run, with almost half the year over, all three are up less than 10%.
Now if they replicate their first-half performance in the second half, that is indeed a great year.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.92% 2-yr. 4.08% 10-yr. 4.37% 30-yr. 4.87%
Treasuries rallied after the PCE didn’t negatively surprise, but more importantly, with the ongoing decline in energy prices.
—Crude oil futures kept falling this week. Increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz since the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran have helped bring prices down.
President Trump said 19 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait on Monday, calling that “the biggest in the history of the Strait,” a questionable claim, a normal day pre-war at 16-18 million max.
And on Monday, the U.S. waived Iranian sanctions on crude and petrochemical products through Aug. 21. It is the first time in decades that Tehran has been able to sell its oil in dollars.
The waiver could facilitate the export of 30 million barrels of Iranian crude.
But it’s true production has picked up in much of the world, like in the U.S. and Venezuela, and, coupled with China taking in far less oil than normal (as China has huge reserves in storage), there are very good reasons for oil to fall. And there is, indeed, a rush to get tankers out of the Strait, or into it to load up.
Separately, President Trump said he has ordered an investigation into major energy companies, accusing them of “gouging” customers by not cutting petrol prices after the cost of crude oil fell on global markets.
This isn’t how it works, Mr. President. He did not name any companies in the post.
—An enormous explosion tore through Qatar’s key natural gas export terminal Sunday night as workers tried to resume operations after Iran bombed it during the war, causing a fire that killed at least 13 people and hurt 66 others.
The blast at the Ras Laffan industrial area could cause further chaos in global energy markets, as Qatar remains one of the world’s top natural gas producers. Qatar shut down its production after Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz meant it couldn’t get shipments out to clients.
With Iran loosening its grip as negotiations continue over a permanent end to the war, Qatar began work to try to restart its export terminal.
We were told since the war started that restarting energy facilities is not that easy, and this is example No. 1.
“I would like to emphasize that this was an accident and not sabotage or hostile in nature,” Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi told a news conference Monday in Doha, Qatar’s capital.
It was unclear if liquefied natural gas output was affected by the blast. Qatar, the second-biggest LNG exporter before the war, halted production of the super-chilled fuel early in the conflict.
–The Street was waiting for Micron Technology’s earnings after the close on Wednesday, and the memory and storage chip company delivered in a big way.
Micron reported adjusted earnings per share of $25.11, up from $1.91 a share last year, and well ahead of consensus for $20.86. Revenue for the quarter reached $41.5 billion, smashing expectations of $35.9 billion, and up 346% on the year.
Micron’s closely-watched adjusted gross margin was 85%, again beating the Street.
Guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter was similarly strong, suggesting Micron’s memory sales are set to reach yet more highs in the current quarter.
The company’s two data-center segments accounted for $25 billion in sales, or 60% of total sales.
The shares rose 15% in after-hours trading.
The memory and storage chip business used to be highly cyclical, driven by demand for consumer electronics, but then data centers came along and the game changed.
Micron executives said on their earnings call that “tight” conditions will persist beyond 2027. Just three months ago, they had projected tight conditions going only beyond this year.
–So given this last outlook by MU, it’s no surprise that Thursday, Apple raised the prices of its Macs and iPads, CEO Tim Cook having previously telegraphed the move in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. Cook said the soaring costs of memory and storage chips would force the company’s hand.
The price tags for Mac computers rose roughly 15% to 20%, and iPad prices rose 15% to 25%.
IPhone prices were unchanged, though the company hinted at more increases in a statement.
“We have now reached a point where we need to begin raising prices,” it said. “We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly.”
—SpaceX went public Friday, June 12, at $135 and by Tues., June 16, the shares hit $225 intraday. It’s been downhill since and on Monday, June 22, the stock closed at $154, down 16%, on word the company had filed for its first-ever bond sale, an offering in the $20 billion range, according to reports, which SpaceX confirmed that it “intends to use the net proceeds from the Notes offering to repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full” and other related fees and expenses.
The loss in market cap, Monday alone, was $400.8 billion, the second largest one-day market value loss for any U.S. company on record.
[An hour before the close today, the shares were at $152.]
—Oracle released its annual report on Monday, and the figures confirmed the workforce declined 13%, or about 21,000 employees in fiscal 2026, as the cloud computing giant continued restructuring its business, partly driven by the adoption of AI across its operations.
The company had a total workforce of 141,000 as of May 31, 2026, compared with about 162,000 as of the same period last year.
Some 196 tech companies have laid off more than 119,800 employees so far this year, according to Layoffs.fyi a website tracking sector-wide job cuts.
Oracle is preparing to raise up to $50bn in new capital to fund AI infrastructure, with more than half of its backlog estimated to be tied to OpenAI related commitments.
Investors will be watching how efficiently Oracle turns that backlog into revenue while managing the costs of the AI infrastructure buildout.
—Airlines stand to save billions of dollars on jet fuel after an interim U.S.-Iran peace deal sent oil prices lower, but passengers are unlikely to see immediate relief as tight capacity may allow carriers to keep fares well above pre-war levels.
Fare increases still lag this year’s run-up in fuel costs, while domestic seat growth remains limited. That gives airlines leeway to lower fuel bills to rebuild margins rather than reverse recent price increases.
U.S. jet fuel spot prices stood at $2.85 a gallon on June 17, down sharply from an early April high of $4.88. A decline of that size would cut the U.S. airline industry’s annual fuel bill by more than $40 billion if sustained, according to a Reuters calculation based on industry fuel consumption.
As jet fuel prices surged, U.S. airlines raised ticket prices and bag fees, and cut schedules, but those steps have offset only part of the rise in fuel costs.
Industry data show jet fuel prices rose more than three times as fast as airfares from January through May.
United CEO Scott Kirby told Reuters his airline was getting closer to recouping the fuel-cost spike through pricing: “We’re on a path to recovering 100% by the end of the year.”
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025….
6/25…111 percent of 2025 levels
6/24…106
6/23…87
6/22… 93
6/21…114
6/20…89
6/19…97
6/18…110
—Cerebras Systems beat expectations in its first earnings report since its initial public offering, beating on revenue and narrowing its loss.
But the shares fell 16% as the outlook for its annual adjusted gross margin shows that the company expects to see reduced profitability over the rest of the year as it ramps up its service contract with OpenAI.
Revenue for the quarter reached $193 million, up 94% from a year ago. The company’s adjusted operating loss was a smaller-than-expected $3.5 million, vs. a $44 million loss last year. For the second quarter it sees revenue rising 88% to $194 million.
The company makes a unique AI chip. OpenAI uses Cerebras’ cloud to host one of its software coding models, Codex-Spark. This is typical of the medium-sized AI models seen running on Cerebras hardware, but the company claims they will soon be able to run much larger models, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT 5.5.
The chip maker also has a binding term sheet with Amazon Web Services, which would be the first major cloud to host Cerebras’ AI chips. At the end of 2025, Cerebras’ backlog was $24.6 billion, mostly from the OpenAI deal.
–Shares of FedEx fell after the company beat expectations for fiscal fourth quarter earnings and revenue and sees continue revenue growth this year.
FedEx reported fourth quarter revenue of $25 billion and adjusted earnings of $6.31 a share. The earnings per share figure reflects adjustments for spin-off costs for its freight business and retirement plan accounting changes, among other factors. The Street was at revenue of $24 billion on adjusted earnings of $5.96 a share.
For the full fiscal year ending in May, FedEx’s adjusted earnings came in at $20.24 a share, ahead of both analyst estimates of $19.86 and the company’s prior guidance of $19.30 to $20.10.
The company is moving to a calendar year reporting schedule going forward and provided guidance on that basis in its reports. It expects 11% revenue growth compared with 2025, adjusted earnings of $16.90 to $18.10 a share, and capital spending of $3.9 billion.
The lower earnings per share outlook for the calendar year ending this December vs. the fiscal year ending last month could explain in part why the stock fell a bit.
—Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that he was joining a growing effort to take on artificial-intelligence giants OpenAI and Anthropic, outlining his vision for the next wave of the AI boom, one involving cheaper models, more user control and political messaging that wins the public’s trust.
Nadella offered a blistering critique of how the race for AI supremacy has taken shape, with a small group of companies capturing the value of the world-changing technology as they make dire prophecies about safety risks and job losses, insisting they need vast resources for limitless expansion.
“You can’t say, hey, all white-collar jobs are gone and this could even be a weapon and we will use all the power to build data centers,” Nadella told The Wall Street Journal. The public, he predicted, wouldn’t tolerate just a few models and companies “doing all of the learning for the world.”
While he didn’t directly name OpenAI, Anthropic or Alphabet’s Google – the three companies building the most advanced proprietary models – he made clear that Microsoft is seeking to steer the AI race away from a future dictated and controlled by frontier model-builders.
Microsoft has been rolling out a suite of low-cost models meant to drive prices down for customers bracing from the sticker shock of skyrocketing AI bills.
The company is also weighing whether to host a version of DeepSeek, an ultralow-cost AI provider based in China that OpenAI and Anthropic have called out for distilling, or copying, their top models. Such a step would likely lead to a dramatic rise in use for the Chinese model-maker, one that could come at the expense of OpenAI and Anthropic, which are facing the prospect of a prolonged price war.
—The Federal Reserve conducted its annual stress test for the largest U.S. banks and concluded they have enough capital to continue lending to households and businesses through even the most treacherous economic conditions.
The 32 banks subjected to a series of hypothetical adverse scenarios – featuring, at worst, a 10% unemployment rate, double-digit real estate price declines, and plunging stocks – can absorb some $708 billion in loan losses and still function as lenders, the Fed said Wednesday.
Shortly after the Fed’s announcement, giving them a clean bill of health, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon said in statements that they would raise their quarterly dividends.
Banks also said they would buy back billions in stock.
—Car sales (‘registrations’ as they call them) in the European Union rose by 4% in the first five months of the year to around 4.75 million vehicles. The market share of pure battery electric cars climbed from 15.3% to 20%.
Chinese providers such as Chery, BYD and Leapmotor are currently making significant strides. The market shares of Chinese providers in the first five months still remains manageable, at up to 2.6% for Geely (Volvo, Polestar) and 2.1% each for SAIC Motor (MG brand) and BYD, but the EU knows it has to do something, sooner than later, so as not to destroy Europe’s home-grown auto industry.
Tesla recovered from its sales slump in the previous year and reached a market share of 1.9% from January to May.
I wrote the above Wednesday (doing this column in bits and pieces throughout the week), and then Friday, Reuters reported:
“Volkswagen is considering shutting four German factories and ramping up job cuts to as many as 100,000, two people familiar with the matter said on Friday, in what could be the biggest overhaul in the carmaker’s history. Members of Volkswagen’s supervisory board have been informed of the plans, which are due to be discussed at a July 9 meeting, the people said, as the carmaker faces mounting pressure from Chinese rivals.”
–U.S. auto-safety regulators opened an investigation into a fatal wreck involving a Tesla that crashed into a home Friday evening and killed one person inside.
The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, the top auto regulator in the country, said Monday that it would examine a crash involving a Tesla Model 3 near Houston.
The driver of the Tesla told police he was operating with an automated driving assistance system, according to a statement by the Harris County Sheriff’s Office.
The vehicle left the roadway, “entered through the brick residence at a high rate of speed,” and struck a woman who was inside, sheriff’s officials said. The woman later died of her injuries.
—The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled for Bayer in its fight against claims that it failed to warn consumers that Roundup causes cancer, boosting the company’s efforts to resolve costly litigation over its popular weedkiller.
In a 7-2 decision, the court said the pharmaceutical and agriculture company can’t be held liable under state law for failing to warn about the alleged risk when a federal regulator – the Environmental Protection Agency – didn’t require the product to carry a warning label.
Bayer, which has been engulfed in litigation over Roundup since acquiring Monsanto in 2018, argued that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act – which establishes a regulatory scheme for labeling weed-killing chemicals and similar pesticides – prohibits states from imposing different or additional warnings than those required under federal law.
Ruling against Bayer would require the company to add a cancer warning to Roundup’s label even though federal law requires it to use the EPA-approved label without a cancer warning, Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote for the court. The goal of the federal law – to create a uniform labeling system – “would otherwise be impossible to achieve,” he said.
In a statement, a Bayer spokesperson said Thursday’s decision was, “good for science, farmers, and industries that depend on regulatory clarity for innovation. It should help significantly contain the Roundup litigation after nearly a decade of legal battles.”
The company’s stock, which trades in Germany, spiked about 17% on Thursday.
Bayer has long maintained that Roundup is safe to use. The EPA has repeatedly determined that it isn’t likely to be carcinogenic in humans and doesn’t need a label that includes a cancer warning. The World Health Organizations’ International Agency for Research on Cancer, however, classified glyphosate, its active ingredient, as “probably carcinogenic to humans” in 2015.
—Carnival Cruise Lines said extreme political volatility has disrupted bookings, and the company issued a soft outlook for the current quarter as higher fuel costs continue to weigh on profit.
CCL said Tuesday that booking trends during the recent quarter were most disrupted across Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean region.
CEO Joseph Weinstein said that strong demand and spending trends across Carnival’s overall portfolio helped to offset the disruption.
Revenue climbed 5.3% to $6.66 billion in the recent period but came in below Wall Street models for $6.69 billion. At the same time, profits slipped as Carnival’s cost-cutting efforts were unable to fully offset higher fuel costs.
Shares fell 7% on the news.
Weinstein said he remains optimistic on Carnival’s outlook, as the company is 93% booked for the remainder of 2026 and on track for record net yields in the back half of the year.
—Tough times on the farm are souring some of the president’s most loyal supporters, months before the midterm elections. According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll released recently, rural voters backed Trump’s economic policies by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin early last year but now disapprove of them 61 percent to 31 percent.
—Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios’ “Toy Story 5” shattered already enormous expectations for its opening weekend, becoming the biggest movie debut of the year so far and notching the biggest opening for the five-part franchise.
The latest installment of the animated feature sold an estimated $160 million in domestic box office sales through Sunday and another $152 million internationally, delivering an estimated $312 million weekend worldwide, according to Rentrak.
The summer domestic box office from May 1 through Sunday of an estimated $1.82 billion is 15.2% ahead of last summer and only 1.9% below the pre-pandemic summer of 2019, Rentrak said. The industry’s estimated $4.46 billion in domestic box office sales so far this year are 14.2% higher than the same span in 2025.
In a distant second place this weekend was Universal’s Steven Spielberg-directed “Disclosure Day,’ which sold $17 million in its second weekend. It has grossed $78.3 million domestically and $160.4 million globally.
“The Odyssey” opens July 17. This is already a hot ticket, from reports I saw.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Russian-backed authorities have suspended fuel sales to the public in the occupied region of Crimea as Ukraine continues its attacks on the peninsula.
Fuel had already been rationed due to shortages caused by Ukraine’s recent campaign against supply routes in Russia-occupied territories.
Earlier, four people were killed and 28 injured by a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in Kerch overnight, which President Volodymyr Zelensky called a “just response to Russia’s brutal attacks.”
“Russia understands only strength, and our long-range strength is certainly working for peace,’ Zelensky said on X.
Over the weekend, Zelensky also said seven people had been killed in Russian attacks.
Crimea is a strategically important location from which Moscow’s forces have launched strikes towards the rest of Ukraine.
It is also a popular summer holiday destination for Russians – some of whom have reported struggling to find petrol to return home.
Then on Thursday night into Friday, Russian air defenses intercepted 660 Ukrainian drones in a major nighttime attack on 12 Russian regions as well as Crimea, the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, Russia’s Defense Ministry said today.
It appeared to be one of the biggest drone attacks on Russian regions and the illegally annexed Crimea since the war started.
The massive attack by Ukraine came after President Zelensky said that he had ordered “a 40-day influence operation,” believed to mean an escalation of attacks, aimed at “compelling (Russia) to end the war” after U.S. peace efforts over the past year yielded no breakthrough.
Russian independent online outlet Astra reported that a chemical plant and hydroelectric plant in Novomoskovsk were attacked and caught fire.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin also reported that 47 Ukrainian drones were downed as they flew toward the Russian capital. He did not report any damage or casualties.
Ukraine reported two people were killed in the Kharkiv region in Russian attacks using guided aerial bombs and drones.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces overnight stopped 174 of 189 Russian drones, the air force said, but four of seven Iskander-M ballistic missiles that were fired got through air defenses and struck various locations.
—On the front lines, Russian troops have infiltrated the strategic city of Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine and are now trying to surround it.
The entire city is now effectively in a “grey zone,” no longer controlled by anyone, Ukrainian soldiers told the BBC.
“They get into areas behind our backs and in urban conditions it’s extremely difficult to push them out,” said a Ukrainian drone pilot who operates in that area.
Kostyantynivka is a gateway to the rest of the Donbas region. If it falls, Russian forces would be able to push towards Ukraine’s last remaining strongholds in the east, the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and move closer to seizing Donbas completely, one of the Kremlin’s key objectives in this war.
China: Britain, France and Germany raised the alarm on Wednesday over recent Chinese activities off the east coast of Taiwan, where China has mounted coast guard patrols, saying they threaten regional stability and freedom of navigation.
China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, earlier in June sent coast guard ships into the waters off the island’s east coast for what it called a “special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation,” angering Taipei.
China said the operation was in response to an announcement by Japan and the Philippines that they would begin formal talks on their maritime boundaries, which Beijing viewed as involving Chinese waters off Taiwan.
China has also been sending maritime survey ships into the same waters. “We have noted with concern novel Chinese activity in the waters east of Taiwan,” the de facto British, French and German embassies in Taipei said in a rare joint statement.
“These actions threaten regional stability and the freedom of navigation and safety of international shipping. We reiterate our opposition to any unilateral change to the status quo, particularly by threat or use of force or coercion,” they said.
North Korea: Pyongyang has commissioned a 5,000-ton destroyer that leader Kim Jong Un touts as a symbol of the country’s growing naval and nuclear capabilities, state media reported Wednesday, as the North seeks to expand its ability to project military power at sea.
Since unveiling the Choe Hyon in April 2025, Kim has portrayed it as a major step toward expanding his military’s operational reach and preemptive strike capabilities. KCNA, the official North Korean news agency, said the warship is equipped with a range of systems, including anti-aircraft and anti-ship weapons as well as nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles.
South Korean officials and experts say the vessel was likely built with Russian assistance amid deepening military ties between the countries, but some analysts have questioned whether it’s ready for active service.
After years of spurring ballistic missile development, Kim has shifted his focus more toward naval capabilities, including the ongoing construction of a nuclear-powered submarine.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 46% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 53% disapprove (June 26).
—New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s slate of fiery progressives swept establishment-backed Democrats in the state’s congressional primaries on Tuesday, ousting two sitting congressmen in a resounding show of force for the democratic socialist leader of America’s biggest city, who is fighting to reshape the Democratic Party in New York and beyond.
U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat, who leads the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and is in his fifth term, was defeated by Mamdani’s most polarizing pick, Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist who once helped organize pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University.
U.S. Rep. Dan Goldman, a two-term incumbent, was beaten by the Mamdani-backed former city comptroller Brad Lander, a fixture among New York progressives who has often shown sympathy to the democratic socialist movement. And another Mamdani ally, democratic socialist state Assembly Member Claire Valdez, defeated the handpicked successor of retiring U.S. Rep. Nydia Velazquez.
Tuesday’s primaries represented a major political gamble for the 34-year-old mayor, whose strength is surging, and a headache for Democratic leaders, who fear that Mamdani and his loyalists may push the party too far left ahead of November’s midterm elections, with the fate of the House at stake.
—Tensions between Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump had been rising for months after the president had grown publicly frustrated with Meloni’s failure to support the war in Iran and for criticizing his broadside against Pope Leo XIV. Last Friday, Meloni had had enough.
After the president told an Italian journalist on Thursday that Meloni had “begged” him to take a photo together at the G-7 summit in France last week, according to an English-language transcript shared by the TV reporter, which Meloni called “totally invented.”
“Italy and I never beg,” she proclaimed in a video posted on social media.
Speaking directly to the camera, Meloni said: “I am frankly shocked. I don’t know why the president of the United States behaves this way toward his own allies. After all, this is not the first time it has happened. I can only say that it’s upsetting that he doesn’t have the same resolve toward the enemies of the West, toward the enemies of the United States, toward leadership to which he instead proves much more indulgent.”
Several of Meloni’s cabinet members rose to her defense.
Antonio Tajani, Italy’s foreign minister, announced on social media that he would cancel a planned visit to a business conference in Miami.
Matteo Salvini, the leader of the furthest-right party in Meloni’s right-wing governing coalition, wrote bluntly that “whoever attacks Giorgia, attacks all of us.”
Trump responded on Truth Social, Sat. AM:
“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asked, over and over, for a picture with me during the G-7 meeting in France. She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America, a Country that truly loves and protects Italy, when it came to denying Iran from obtaining or developing a Nuclear Weapon (But so did NATO, for that matter!). She wouldn’t even let us use Italy’s landing strips or runways, a great logistical inconvenience, and this despite the fact the U.S. contributes hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year to protect Italy, and other ‘so-called’ NATO Allies. Now, after the United States defeated Iran militarily, she wants to be friends again in order to get her ‘numbers up.’ No thanks!!! President DJT”
That, my friends, is a very small man.
Meloni followed with a statement on Instagram, saying Trump’s “constant, unprovoked attacks” were “senseless.”
“As for my popularity, being your friend has certainly not helped it, nor does it depend on my relationship with you,” said Meloni.
“My popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours,” she added.
You go, Girl!
—The House on Tuesday overwhelmingly passed a landmark housing bill, notching a rare bipartisan accomplishment ahead of the midterm elections and clearing the way for President Trump to sign the most significant piece of housing legislation in 36 years.
The bill’s passage, by a lopsided 359-to-32 vote, ended months of sparring between the House and the Senate over a sprawling measure that aims to tackle the housing crisis by boosting supply in a country facing an acute shortage of new homes. The Senate passed its version of the same bill Monday, by a vote of 85 to 5.
Passage of the legislation secured a much-needed achievement for Trump and the GOP months before midterm elections in which their congressional majorities are at stake. Voters have been particularly critical of the president’s handling of the economy, with only 33 percent approving of it, according to a New York Times/Siena poll last month.
The 21st Century Road to Housing Act loosens federal regulations, making it easier, faster and cheaper to build; eases lending rules; rewards communities that build; delivers aid to communities reeling from disasters; and, in a policy that proved to be one of the biggest flash points but was favored by the president, sets new limits on the role institutional investors can play in the market.
So, President Trump was to sign it Wednesday, but he abruptly canceled plans to do so, saying he would refuse to take action on the bill until Congress passes a long-stalled bill he has championed that would impose strict new voter-eligibility rules.
The move ratcheted up tension within his own party hours before a closed-door lunch with Senate Republicans, many of whom have repeatedly told him the voting bill has no path to passage.
Lawmakers were totally blindsided after Trump’s posts on Truth Social. First, he posted at 10:17 AM:
“MY REAL POLL NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN. THANK YOU!!!”
1O:26 AM:
“Today’s Housing News Conference and Signing is hereby cancelled until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The bill could yet become law if the president doesn’t act on it for ten days.
—The Supreme Court on Thursday said the Trump administration can turn away migrants seeking asylum along the U.S.-Mexico border by physically preventing them from crossing into the United States as they seek protection from persecution.
The administration has asked the court to permit the government to revive a policy, first used in 2016, as part of President Trump’s immigration crackdown. Under that so-called turn-back policy, the government had stopped asylum seekers from setting foot on U.S. soil, where federal law would have entitled them to try to claim asylum and receive protections.
The statute at issue says any noncitizen who is “physically present in the United States” or “arrives in the United States” can apply for asylum. Migrants who announce their intention to seek protection are then referred for an interview to evaluate their claims.
A major question in the case was what it meant to “arrive” in the United States. In its 6-to-3 ruling, the court said noncitizens must fully cross the border to gain the right to apply for asylum. The court’s conservative majority said migrants standing in Mexico do not “arrive” by “attempting, and failing, to set foot in this country.”
In another related ruling, also 6-to-3, the justices cleared the way for Trump to lift temporary humanitarian protections that allow hundreds of thousands of Haitian and Syrian migrants to remain in the United States because conditions in their countries are deemed too dangerous for them to return.
The decision is expected to reverberate beyond those two communities, affecting approximately 1.3 million immigrants from 17 countries who hold what is known as temporary protected status, or TPS. Last year, the Supreme Court allowed the administration to revoke the status for Venezuelans.
—A federal court in Massachusetts struck down crucial components of an executive order from President Trump that sought to place significant restrictions on mail voting as “unlawful, null, and void.” The order had, in part, tried to use federal oversight of the U.S. Postal Service to regulate mail voting.
The ruling from Judge Indira Talwani amounted to a broad rejection of the Trump administration’s attempts to change federal election procedures through an executive order, repeatedly emphasizing that the Constitution grants authority over elections not to the executive branch but to individual states and Congress.
“The Constitution does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” Judge Talwani wrote, adding emphasis by underling the words “does not.”
—The Center for Strategic International Studies, a bipartisan policy research organization, wrote a report on the depletion of U.S. munitions during the Iran War. For example, the think tank estimates more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles were launched, far exceeding the average annual procurement of 86 over the past decade – and that replenishment could take until 2030 or 2031. It also determined that up to 290 THAAD interceptors were used, with those reserves returning to prior levels only by mid-to-late 2029. [Army Times]
The Pentagon is now asking for $87 billion to fund the war, mostly for “urgent needs” connected with the war on Iran, up from an estimate of $29 billion given lawmakers in May.
The bulk of the funding – $67bn – is for the Defense Department, including $21 billion for munitions. The other money is for farmers, $11 billion, funds to tackle Ebola and other items.
—President Trump on Truth Social, Sat. PM:
“The United States Park Police have arrested multiple individuals for vandalizing our Nations [sic] magnificent Reflecting Pool. Who would do such a thing? These are very serious crimes having to do with the destruction of National Monuments. Years in jail! Work will begin immediately on its repair. President DJT”
Hours later, another post:
“Many additional people have been arrested having to do with the disgraceful Vandalism of our beautiful Reflecting Pool. It hasn’t looked or worked like this since 1922, when it was originally built, but even then, it leaked badly, and didn’t work. Ours worked perfectly, including the mirror like finish, perfectly reflecting the two Great Monuments, which it never had before! What these terrible Vandals have done is a true affront to both Presidents George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and should be dealt with accordingly… They took some form of knife or blade, and put a 250 foot long gash into the beautiful façade of what took so much work, competence, and money to build and complete. They also poured corrosive and destructive chemicals into the Pool. The Reflecting Pool was never so beautiful as it was just one week ago, even going back to 1922 when it opened.”
—Federal investigators concluded that the catastrophic 2021 partial collapse of the Champlain Towers South condominium in Surfside, Fla., began roughly three weeks before the building fell.
In a report released Monday, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, determined that a structural failure first occurred at two critical garage column connections beneath the pool deck in early June 2021.
That failure trapped the 12-story building in an undetected, slow-motion domino effect that ultimately claimed 98 lives, concluding something that many engineers had long suspected.
Investigators found that when those initial slab-to-column connections failed, the pool deck’s concrete slab began to silently warp and fracture over a 21-day period, progressively shifting immense weight to adjacent columns.
On June 24, the pool deck gave way entirely, pulling down a major portion of the building.
—Three hikers died from suspected heat-related illness in Grand Canyon National Park amid extremely hot temperatures, officials said, in discussing emergency responses to incidents on June 12 and June 16, resulting in three deaths. Temperatures in the shade were 109. The hikers were in the Inner Canyon, which Park officials have warned visitors against using during peak daytime hours.
The victims were between the ages of 67 and 72.
–But while portions of the U.S. baked this week, the big story was in Europe, which has endured days of extreme, record-breaking heat, with trains, concerts and sports events canceled and authorities cracking down on drinking alcohol in public.
As of Friday, at least 55 people had drowned in France, people trying to escape the heat and not realizing the power of the rivers they were jumping into (for example).
There were fears in France that the crisis could end up being like the 2003 heat wave that killed 15,000 older people in the country.
Temperatures in some parts of France, Italy, Spain and Germany hit 40 degrees C (104F).
Tuesday, France recorded its hottest day since records began nearly 80 years ago. The recorded temperature peaked at 44.3 C (111.7 Fahrenheit) in the southwestern town of Pissos. Bordeaux hit 112.3 F, Tuesday.
The Eiffel Tower and the Louvre Museum shut early on Tuesday.
A French agriculture cooperative said farmers were introducing night shifts for harvesting to protect workers from afternoon heat and fields from fire risk.
Britain was on course for its hottest June day ever this week, which occurred on Thursday. This follows the hottest May on record in the UK.
Of more than 800 European cities analyzed, 45% have recorded, or are forecast to record, their highest heat stress levels for late June. Heat stress occurs when the body cannot cool itself through sweating.
As you all know by now, the big issue in Europe is the lack of air conditioning, because historically, it is seldom needed. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, roughly 90% of American homes have A/C, compared with just 19% across Europe. Add to this the fact that many homes, such as in England and beyond, were actually designed to trap heat to survive cold, damp winters, and that same design turns them into ovens during a heat wave.
The real killer, however, is the relentless, day-after-day buildup of heat with no overnight relief. France recorded its hottest night ever this week, with some towns never dropping below 28.7 C (83.7 F). Nighttime is when the body is supposed to recover from the day’s heat; when it can’t, the risk of dehydration, heatstroke and death climbs sharply, especially for the elderly and the very young.
In Spain, Monday night into Tuesday, the overnight temps in Andujar did not drop below 86 F, a first for June in mainland Spain.
Frankfurt & Prague were expected to hit at least 95 F over a five-day stretch.
–I saw a piece in USA TODAY, today, that Lake Powell – the massive Colorado River reservoir that produces power for millions of homes across the West – is the emptiest it has ever been entering the hottest part of the summer. And the worst is still to come.
Although the lake’s levels have briefly fallen lower in years past, those low-water levels came in the spring, before melting snow refilled it. This year, that refill never happened.
As a result, Lake Powell will next spring fall to “minimum power pool,” according to a newly released federal projection. If the water levels fall below that, the Glen Canyon Dam would stop generating electricity.
Today, the lake is 23.28% full. It was last completely full in 1983.
–Lastly, we have the immense tragedy in Venezuela, as on Wednesday, the nation was hit by two massive earthquakes.
The first, 7.2-magnitude earthquake was followed less than a minute later by a 7.5-magnitude quake, according to U.S. monitoring agencies. The epicenter was near San Felipe, a city of about 220,000 in the state of Yaracuy, about 200 miles west of Caracas.
The 7.5 quake was the largest to hit the country since 1900. Buildings were evacuated as far away as Brazil’s Amazon, about 1,700 kilometers (1,050 miles) from Caracas.
Venezuela lacks heavy equipment for removing rubble, and search and rescue teams are overwhelmed.
The official death toll was 920 this afternoon, but the most devastated regions have yet to be accessed.
This story will grow and grow over the coming weeks.
And for millions of good Venezuelans who suddenly have nothing, the above-noted Supreme Court rulings don’t help, to state the obvious.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini !!!
God bless America.
—
Gold $4068…Silver $59.00
Oil $69.45
Bitcoin: $59,702 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.90; Diesel: $4.93 [$3.22 – $3.71 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 6/22-6/26
Dow Jones +0.6 [51876]
S&P 500 -2.0% [7353]
S&P MidCap +0.7%
Russell 2000 +1.0%
Nasdaq -4.6% [25297]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-6/26/26
Dow Jones +7.9%
S&P 500 +7.4%
S&P MidCap +15.5%
Russell 2000 +21.2%
Nasdaq +8.8%
Hang in there.
With the market closed next Friday, I don’t know when I’ll post, but before the normal time.
Brian Trumbore
