Thurs., Oct. 1, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Oct. 1…regular $4.41…diesel $6.38
Diesel is down 14 cents from the high set just eight days ago. It’s a start.
But crude oil futures were surging above $93 this afternoon, Brent over $102, amid reports of tighter Chinese fuel supplies, which added to concerns over an already disrupted global market. PetroChina has reportedly suspended exports of gasoline and jet-fuel scheduled for October, with Beijing seeking to preserve domestic inventories.
At the same time, concerns over outright crude shortages have eased somewhat after Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu following the restart of its East-West pipeline.
But while crude shipments in the region were approaching pre-war levels, refined fuel availability, particularly gasoline and diesel, remained tighter.
However, at 1:54 PM, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“I stated, numerous times, that it would take 4-6 weeks to get rid of the IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT, and I did it in one night! The rest of the time is just to make sure it stays that way.”
Well, yours truly has stated, numerous times, that you cannot claim you have rid the world of Iran’s nuclear threat when there have been zero freakin’ inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency on the ground in Iran for years! Don’t waste my time with other drivel!!!
I have argued since the war started that Donald Trump was making a massive mistake in not enlisting the aid of the IAEA’s director-general, Rafael Grossi. For starters, it was Politics 101. Grossi is on our side, and knows the dangers posed by what was Iran’s fledgling nuclear program. Operation Midnight Hammer did a great job in degrading the program, we think, summer of 2025, and the initial phases of the war since Feb. 28 have degraded the program further, we think, but we know there is increased activity at Pickaxe Mountain and we don’t really know where Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is.
You need inspectors on the ground to figure it out…and part of any agreement to end the crisis has to include the IAEA.
God, I’m sick of this crap.
Meanwhile, at about the same time as Trump’s ‘Truth,’ the Wall Street Journal reported “The Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East, according to U.S. officials, adding 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the region as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
“The ships, jet fighters, Marines and sailors will arrive in the region by the end of November, the officials said. Trump recently told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran that same month, The Wall Street Journal reported.”
Here’s the thing. The USS Theodore Roosevelt left its home port of San Diego on Sunday “on a scheduled deployment,” while an amphibious ready group left on Monday.
We have two carriers in the region currently – the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington.
It’s just unclear whether the Roosevelt could simply replace the Washington, which is based in Japan, where to state the obvious, it’s probably more needed because Xi Jinping could speed up his Taiwan takeover timetable otherwise. At least he must be contemplating starting a blockade sooner than he may have otherwise; the blockade being step one.
We should get a clearer idea sooner rather than later as to the Roosevelt’s true mission, ditto the Washington’s status.
Lastly, the bond market has had a crazy day. This morning relentless selling pressure pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.34%, blowing past its 2007 peak to reach its highest level since 2002.
But after a rather parabolic move…as in two weeks ago we were at 5.00% (4.78% four weeks ago), buyers do emerge, and it seems investors were moving out of riskier government bonds and into those of the U.S. and Germany. So, we’ll go with that for now.
We had the same action in the 2-year.
—
Dow Jones +20…+0.04% [50926]
S&P 500 +14…+0.2% [7666]
Nasdaq +10…+0.04% [26871]
Oil (WTI) $93.25…Brent $102.55
Gold $4175
Silver $61.00
Bitcoin: $84,629 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.78%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.24%
Japanese 10-yr. 3.10%…30-year high…but this was before today’s big pullback in yields in the U.S.
Check out my Week in Review, posted Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
