Thurs., Nov. 5, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Nov. 5…regular $4.10…diesel $6.25
While the price at the pump continues to drop, crude oil prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, climbing to around $90 a barrel after plunging more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Traders continued to assess whether the Democratic sweep in the midterms could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran.
As I noted the other day, President Trump told the Financial Times that he had no immediate plans to escalate military strikes, but geopolitical risks to supply remain elevated despite a recovery in exports from Gulf producers. Adding to concerns, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said today that two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents after allegedly attempting to navigate unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. heating oil futures rose above $4.30 per gallon, recovering from a five-week low of $4.20 reached Wednesday, driven by tight supplies and the risks in the world.
In the U.S., stockpiles of distillates – a category that includes diesel – dropped below 100 million barrels last week, the lowest level since 2003, according to government data, 13% below the five-year average and at a record season low.
Russia said it plans to extend its diesel export ban through January 2027, although some exceptions will remain.
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As for the bloodbath in the stock market Thursday, the worst day since April 2025 (Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement), it was all about investors reassessing some of the year’s most popular AI trades.
Forget yesterday’s rally, which was a “clearing event,” and more relief that the margins of victory for the Democrats were so decisive, President Trump couldn’t contest the vote, and Republican leaders, including from Vice President Vance on down, said the GOP deserved it.
Today, reality really set in, especially in the Blue Wave that swept key AI infrastructure, AI buildout state, Texas, where one of four planned data centers are to be built, but Democrats winning statewide elections, like Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, have said they would pause construction of same and end tax breaks for the industry.
The Street is now asking big questions? Is the infrastructure boom ending? Is capex growth ending? Were all the pronouncements, by all the key players, that this is just the third inning of the AI boom just blowing smoke up our ass?
For one day at least, chipmakers and data-center suppliers, such as Nvidia, SpaceX, Oracle, Sandisk, and Micron suffered a drubbing, losses of 6%, 8%, 10%…and in many cases after these stocks were already in a deep dive from all-time highs.
The stock selloff did have a beneficiary, Treasuries, a further flight-to-quality, which is leaving the yield on the 10-year at its lowest level since Sept. 9.
Will there be more selling Friday, or do we get a dead-cat bounce? Apologies to cat owners.
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As vote counting continues in some districts, the margin for Democrats in the House is 251-155, 29 yet to be decided.
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Dow Jones -1833…-3.4% [51523]
S&P 500 -334…-4.4% [7353]
Nasdaq -1421…-5.5% [24315]
Oil (WTI) $90.80…Brent $98.45
Gold $4100
Silver $52.05
Bitcoin: $76,116 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.46%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.83%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.76%
Check out my Week in Review, posted Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore