Mon., Oct. 5, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Oct. 5…regular $4.36…diesel $6.32
Diesel is down 20 cents from the high set two weeks ago. But above $6.00 it’s a killer for many politicians looking to save their seats in November. [Above $5.00 is still bad for truckers and farmers, let alone consumers who get the pass-through in prices.]
Crude oil held below $91 a barrel on Monday, and fell to $89 near the close, with markets balancing easing supply pressures against renewed geopolitical risks. Prices came under pressure after Saudi Aramco cut the November selling price of Arab Light to Asian buyers to $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a deeper discount than the $2 offered for October. The move suggests stronger competition for market share as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, while the G7’s latest emergency stockpile release is also weighing on prices.
However, supply concerns remain significant. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline continues to operate normally after reports of a fresh attack had briefly raised fears of another disruption. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to leave production quotas unchanged next month.
As for the ‘refined products’ market (heating oil, diesel, jet fuel…), it remains tight. EIA data showed U.S. distillate inventories at historically low levels, while refinery maintenance and seasonal demand are expected to keep supplies under pressure.
In the Middle East, attacks and logistical bottlenecks have reduced refining capacity and constrained diesel supplies, while in Russia, Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refinery operations and Moscow’s extension of diesel-export restrictions through October has further limited global availability. China also suspended fuel exports for October to preserve domestic inventories, removing another source of international supply.
But the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude, as alluded to above.
The bond market was all over the place today, with the yield on the 10-year, which had closed at 5.28% on Friday, hitting 5.34% before backing off some.
Overseas, the spread between the German and French 10-year bonds narrowed four basis points after hitting the widest spread I can remember last Friday…3.46% on the bund, 4.87% for the French paper, France in the midst of a rather messy political situation, coupled with trying to deal with extreme debt.
Political problems in the likes of France and Spain are impacting the value of the euro, which I may talk about more this week.
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Goodness gracious, it’s been hot in Southern California. Burbank hit 102 on Saturday, 101 Sunday. God, I wish Johnny Carson was still alive and doing The Tonight Show. “It was so hot in Burbank today….” [Ed guffawing….]
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Dow Jones +91…+0.2% [51268]
S&P 500 +51…+0.7% [7774]
Nasdaq +286…+1.1% [27477…record]
Oil (WTI) $89.10…Brent $100.20
Gold $4140
Silver $61.10
Bitcoin: $85,725 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.82%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.31%
Japanese 10-yr. 3.07%
Back Tues.
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Brian Trumbore
