Wed., Oct. 7, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Oct.7…regular $4.36…diesel $6.30
Regular is unchanged since Sunday (reminder, you don’t ‘round up’ on bonds, commodity futures, stock indexes, but trying to prevent the media from doing that is a lost cause). Diesel continues to edge down from its high of $6.52, but we’re talking a penny a day and the futures market has stabilized.
But both crude oil (WTI) and Brent were rising this morning, which meant bond yields were rising, stocks falling, as has been the pattern for months, basically since the start of the war.
Rising oil causes inflation anxieties to rise, Treasuries fall (yields rise), and stocks generally drop.
But crude reversed and fell from nearly $91 to below $89, while Brent went from $101 to $99. This despite growing signs of increased Iranian missile and drone attacks against shipping in the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz.
Export volumes have nonetheless been rising, as I’ve been detailing in this space, but refined product (diesel, jet fuel and the like) is not coming out at pre-war levels.
This morning, oil had been helped by the increasing likelihood of a hurricane in the Gulf, which could disrupt refiners in the area, so heating oil (diesel) futures were spiking, though it seems the path of soon-to-be Hurricane Isaias will not impact the refiners in the Houston area…though we all know things can change, which is why the Weather Channel’s viewership is no doubt spiking, your editor tuning in just an hour ago to get the forecasted track.
Refineries in the Gulf states account for about 50% of the national refining capacity of 18.2 million barrels per day, while disruptions to Russia’s refining operations and extended diesel-export restrictions, along with China’s reported suspension of October fuel exports, added to global diesel supply constraints.
The EIA raised its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts, citing rapidly falling global inventories and tight diesel markets.
Meanwhile, specifically on Bonds, Treasury yields were rising this morning to levels not seen since 2002, 5.36% on the 10-year (the 30-year hitting 5.70%), which attracted buyers and demand was strong for an auction of 10-year notes early this afternoon, signaling emerging investor demand at multi-decade highs.
And suddenly we were back to 5.28% on the 10-year, which is where we were at the close yesterday.
Stocks then dutifully cut their losses.
Across the pond, the political unrest in France continues to do a number on their bond market, the spread between the German bund (10-year) and the French 10-year back to nearly 140 basis points, 3.47% to 4.86%, the spread increasing a whopping 12 bps today.
—
The Yankees look to avoid a sweep in their series with the Rays tonight at the Stadium.
Pope Leo’s White Sox seek to sweep the Guardians before the home fans in Chicago.
The Dodgers, up 2-1, are looking to close out the Braves in Atlanta.
And the Brewers and Padres continue their terrific series, Milwaukee up 2-1 in the best-of-five NLDS.
—
Dow Jones -341…-0.7% [51179]
S&P 500 -17…-0.2% [7801]
Nasdaq -61…-0.2% [27538]
Oil (WTI) $89.00…Brent $100.90
Gold $4101
Silver $59.65
Bitcoin: $83,458 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.76%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.28%
Japanese 10-yr. 3.09%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
