Barack Obama Addresses the Muslim World
I liked the comment of Abdulah Schleiffer, an American-born Jew who converted to Islam, as reported in the London Times.
“It is easy to say it’s just words but words have a reality. The Declaration of Independence was only words but they changed the world.”
Of course it’s also now about actions, and my dictum ‘wait 24 hours,’ before forming too many hard and fast opinions on the eventual outcome of Barack Obama’s speech in Cairo. It’s also a time when the mission of this column dictates that I cover it extensively, and from all sides.
“One benefit of the Obama presidency is that it is validating much of George W. Bush’s security agenda and foreign policy merely by dint of autobiographical rebranding. That was clear enough yesterday in Cairo, where President Obama advertised ‘a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world.’ But what he mostly offered were artfully repackaged versions of themes President Bush sounded with his freedom agenda. We meant that as a compliment, albeit with a couple of large caveats….
“(Mr. Obama) missed a chance to remind his audience that no country has done more than the U.S. to liberate Muslims from oppression – in Kuwait, Bosnia, Kosovo and above all in Afghanistan and Iraq, where more than 50 million people were freed by American arms from two of the most extreme tyrannies in modern history. His insistence on calling Iraq a ‘war of choice’ is a needless insult to Mr. Bush that diminishes the cause of which more than 4,000 Americans have died.
“He also couldn’t resist his by now familiar moral self-indulgence by asserting that he has ‘unequivocally prohibited the use of torture’ and ordered Guantanamo closed. Aside from the fact that the U.S. wasn’t torturing anyone before Mr. Obama came into office, his Arab hosts can see through his claims. They know the Obama Administration is ‘rendering’ al-Qaeda detainees to other countries, some of them Arab, where their rights and well-being are far less secure than at Gitmo.
“The President also stooped to easy, but false, moral equivalence, most egregiously in comparing the U.S. role in an Iranian coup during the Cold War with revolutionary Iran’s 30-year hostility toward the U.S. He also compared Israel’s right to exist with Palestinian statehood. But while denouncing Israeli settlements was an easy applause line, removal of those settlements will do nothing to ease Israeli-Palestinian tensions if the result is similar to what happened when Israel withdrew its settlements from Gaza. We too favor a two-state solution – as did President Bush – but that solution depends on Palestinians showing the capacity to build domestic institutions that reject and punish terror against other Palestinians and their neighbors.
“Hanging over all of this is the question of Iran. In his formal remarks, Mr. Obama promised only diplomacy without preconditions and warned about a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Yet surely Iran was at the top of his agenda in private with Mr. Mubarak and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, both of whom would quietly exult if the U.S. removed that regional threat. They were no doubt trying to assess if Mr. Obama is serious about stopping Tehran, or if he is the second coming of Jimmy Carter.
“It is in those conversations, and in the hard calls the President will soon have to make, that his Middle East policy will stand or fall.”
Daniel Horovitz / Jerusalem Post
“Astutely invoking his own personal Muslim background, and wrapping his challenge in words of appreciation for Islam as a potential force for tolerance, President Barack Obama nonetheless spoke harsh truths to the Muslim world in Cairo on Thursday. And he was applauded.
“Offering, and demanding, a new beginning in relations between Islam and the West, he appealed to a respect for human life, which he said was common to all faiths but which he stressed Muslim radicals have come to disregard. ‘We will…relentlessly confront violent extremists who pose a grave threat to our security. Because we reject the same thing that people of all faiths reject: the killing of innocent men, women and children,’ he said. And he was applauded.
“This was, of course, only a first step. ‘No single speech can eradicate years of mistrust,’ he noted. But one way to measure the achievement even this single speech constituted is to ask whether his predecessor could have conceived it, delivered it and been cheered for it. The answer, three times, is no….
“Less encouraging was the strikingly brief portion of his speech devoted to Iran. ‘When it comes to nuclear weapons, we have reached a decisive point,’ he said, promisingly. But in choosing to continue by asserting Iran’s right to ‘access peaceful nuclear power,’ he offered no reassurance to Arab regimes panicked by Tehran’s drive to the bomb, and absolutely no reassurance to Israel.
“Watching from here, his even-handed attribution of blame for the failure of peace efforts to date was jarring indeed. ‘For more than 60 years,’ the president declared, the Palestinian people ‘have endured the pain of dislocation. Many wait in refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza and neighboring lands for a life of peace and security that they have never been able to lead.’
“To which most Israelis, having now witnessed even Ehud Olmert’s ultra-generous two-state terms being derisively brushed aside by Mahmoud Abbas, would retort: ‘And whose fault is that?’
“But Obama used his platform, too, to insist that ‘Palestinians must abandon violence. Resistance through violence and killing is wrong and does not succeed.’ And, seconds later, he repeated and elaborated: ‘It is a sign of neither courage nor power to shoot rockets at sleeping children, or to blow up old women on a bus. That is not how moral authority is claimed; that is how it is surrendered.’
“He said this without including a parallel criticism of Israel’s military response to such killing. He said this to a Muslim audience in Cairo.”
“This is a direct, significant and brave appeal, in which President Obama has formulated his vision and the important universal values he wishes to share with the Muslim world. The speech contains reinforcement and encouragement for the moderate and peace-seeking elements, as well as an affront to terror and extremist elements threatening stability in our region and peace in the world.
“We praise the president’s commitment to the existence and safety of Israel, as well as his clear call for Israel’s integration in the region. We hope the Arab world will heed President Obama’s call to bring an end to terror and violence and establish peaceful ties with Israel. We will act in coordination with the U.S. to promote peace, while emphasizing the safeguarding of Israel’s essential security interests.” [Jerusalem Post]
“Obama ignored the fact that the Palestinians have not abandoned terror. The government of Israel is not America’s lackey. The relations with the Americans are based on friendship and not submission, and therefore Israel must tell Obama that stopping natural growth in the settlements is a red line.” [Jerusalem Post]
“The world has become so used to political spin doctors working assiduously before and after major political events, it was easy to believe President Barack Hussein Obama’s address to the Muslim world yesterday at Cairo’s Al-Azhar University would not live up to its billing. However not only did it do so, it perhaps exceeded the expectations of even the most hopeful. Of equal importance, this was a speech that needed no spin-doctoring after the president left the podium.
“The message was crystal clear, short on rhetoric and long on reality. He accepted no single speech could itself dispel mistrust but both America and the Muslim world should abandon crude stereotypes of each other. People should focus on what they have in common, not what divides them. Obama said his foreign policy was rooted in diplomacy and international consensus, not in imposing Washington’s will….
“He called on Hamas to end violence and recognize Israel’s right to exist, but tucked away a few minutes later was a fascinating comment, which in a speech so carefully crafted, could not have been a mistake. Having said America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, he said equally ‘we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election.’ Hamas won a peaceful election victory in January 2006 but George W. Bush rejected it, plunging Palestinians into bitter division. The Lebanese vote on Sunday may elect a Hizbullah majority. Does this mean Obama will welcome such an outcome and if he does, is this a way of trying to prove to Iranians that they can do business with him, whoever wins their June 12 presidential election?
“Adroitly Obama argued the threat of extremist violence united all the children of Abraham and quoted from the Holy Qur’an, the Torah and the Bible the message of promoting peace. Extremism threatened the world just as much as recession, influenza and nuclear proliferation.
“He ended as he began by calling for ‘a new beginning.’ In the mouths of so many other politicians, that ambition would die with the echo of the words. However, a combination of his extraordinary oratory, his charisma, his background and his personal experience of Islam gave the ambitions he expressed genuine weight. Only al-Qaeda and Zionist extremists could recoil from this speech in dangerous exasperation.
“Now though comes the hard part. Obama has made his case and made it brilliantly. If rhetoric alone could bring justice to the Palestinians, today they would be free. Instead ahead lie long, tough negotiations, beset by mistrust and domestic political and personal risks. Obama’s skills and sincerity will both be tested.”
Editorial / New York Post
“As for terrorism – well, there was not a peep about it in the entire 6,000-word, hour-long speech.
“True, Obama decried ‘violent extremists’ who ‘have exploited [U.S.-Muslim] tensions in a small but potent minority of Muslims.’
“And – happily – he strongly affirmed that America will ‘relentlessly confront violent extremists who pose a grave threat to our society,’ adding that ‘my very first duty as president [is] to protect the American people.’
“But there was not a word about the 2006 State Department report detailing how Saudi Arabia engages in the ‘propagation and export of an ideology of religious hate and intolerance throughout the world’ – i.e., global financing of Wahabbi extremism and Islamist terror.
“Obama called on Hamas to ‘put an end to violence.’ But he also promised that the bloody-handed organization can ‘play a role in fulfilling Palestinian aspirations’ – a breathtaking reversal of long-standing U.S. policy.
“To be sure, the president made some good and important points:
“He called for a rejection of Holocaust denial, 9/11 conspiracy theories and ‘crude stereotypes’ about America.
“And he acknowledged that ‘the Iraqi people are ultimately better off without Saddam Hussein’ (though without endorsing the war that removed him).
“Still, Obama very eloquently told his audience pretty much what it wanted to hear, and did so with respect and apparent humility.
“But will the Muslim world accept his words, reject the extremists and move closer to Washington?
But what of the here and now? The Israeli and U.S. governments continue to be stalemated over the settlements issue. The roadmap said Israel was to freeze all settlement construction, yet it has continued and 300,000 Israelis live in 121 settlements in the West Bank. The Israelis, however, claim that “natural growth” is permitted, meaning the natural expansion of existing large settlements. For example, 5,000 live in a town, families expand by 200, the settlement should be allowed to build enough to accommodate them. This has been allowed by succeeding administrations, but the White House is saying all settlement activity, including natural growth, must cease.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has no problem dismantling remote outposts, as he has slowly been doing, but that natural growth will continue. Meanwhile, the far right in Israel (right of even the prime minister) says the outposts should not be dismantled and that President Obama has no right to dictate to Jews where they may or may not live. The wife of convicted spy Jonathan Pollard says, it is “God’s divine plan” for settlements to expand, and new ones built, and that “Your problem, Mr. President, is with the almighty God of Israel!”
You can see how Netanyahu has perhaps the toughest job in the world these days…more so than Obama’s. The prime minister, who refuses to endorse a two-state solution, against the wishes of the White House, is also seeing a U.S. administration that doesn’t appear to be that concerned with Iran’s progress on the nuclear weapons front. I have thus changed my mind, given the latest facts. It is indeed possible that Israel will find it necessary to act preemptively against Iran’s growing threat, particularly if by, say, October, U.S. engagement with the Iranian government yields little progress, and risk the wrath of Washington. Understand, while the blowback could be substantial, behind closed doors the leadership in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and in other Gulf states, would quietly be rejoicing. The issue for them would then be how to control any domestic protests.
But there is another threat, that being the Israeli far right. Think Yitzhak Rabin, assassinated by a right-winger who opposed Rabin’s signing of the Oslo Accords. These next six months could be tumultuous ones for Israelis as they deal with threats both external and internal.
Lastly, I believe President Obama’s thoughts on women’s rights could prove to be as transformational as anything else in his speech. Just give it time, but no one should be surprised if in certain nations, a year or two from now there are mass protests of women calling for more freedom.
“Our daughters can contribute just as much to society as our sons, and our common prosperity will be advanced by allowing all humanity – men and women – to reach their full potential. I do not believe that women must make the same choices as men in order to be equal, and I respect those women who choose to live their lives in traditional roles. But it should be their choice.”
I can guarantee that today, Arab women, are discussing this passage and others like it in the president’s speech. They are no doubt doing so in whispers out of fear, but tomorrow, it could be shouts in the likes of Saudi Arabia itself.
General Motors formally filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the U.S. taxpayer now owns 60% of the company, even as President Obama reiterated he does not desire to run the automaker. As the Wall Street Journal editorialized, “The President is so busy not running GM that he had time the night before to call and reassure Detroit Mayor Dave Bing about the new GM’s future location….Mr. Bing told the Detroit News that he had received a call Sunday evening from the President ‘informing me of his support for GM to stay in the city of Detroit….We don’t know whether GM should stay in Detroit. But we do know that the location of a company’s headquarters is one of those decisions typically not made by people who are busy not running the company.”
Editorial / Washington Post
“In March, we cheered President Obama when he extended a federal lifeline to General Motors and Chrysler. He was risking a fair bit of tax dollars – $6 billion, on top of $17.5 billion in emergency loans tendered since December – but he said he was setting tough conditions for anything beyond that. ‘We cannot make the survival of our auto industry dependent on an unending flow of taxpayer dollars,’ he said. ‘These companies – and this industry – must ultimately stand on their own, not as wards of the state.’
“So how did we get from there to here? Here, according to media accounts this week, is an imminent transformation of General Motors into a government-owned company, infused with upward of $50 billion in federal money…When might the company stand on its own, to paraphrase Mr. Obama? When would the government exit the stage? The Post reports today that administration officials hope to depart within five years, but the truth is that nobody knows when or whether taxpayers would recover their investment….
“The bailouts were distasteful from the beginning, in December, but with the economy so fragile, a GM implosion might have been calamitous….
“But is a massive, unbounded federal commitment to a company that evidently still can attract no private capital really the only option?….
“[Federal Judge Richard A. Posner wrote], ‘We should be concerned lest GM become a kind of economic Vietnam, where the federal government throws good money after bad, year after year, in a vain quest for victory.’
“When the Bush administration first assessed its unpalatable options, Congress played an active and constructive role. Where are the legislators now? They should at least be pressing the administration to explain why nationalization is the best option.”
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, in an op-ed for the Financial Times.
“The only practical purpose I can imagine for the bailout is to slow the decline of GM to create enough time for its workers, suppliers, dealers and communities to adjust to its eventual demise. Yet if this is the goal, surely there are better ways to allocate $60 billion than to buy GM? The funds would be better spent helping the Midwest diversify away from cars. Cash could be used to retrain car workers, giving them extended unemployment insurance as they retrain.
“But U.S. politicians dare not talk openly about industrial adjustment because the public does not want to hear about it. A strong constituency wants to preserve jobs and communities as they are, regardless of the public cost. Another equally powerful group wants to let markets work their will, regardless of the short-term social costs. Polls show most Americans are against bailing out GM, but if their own jobs were at stake I am sure they would have a different view.
“So the Obama administration is, in effect, paying $60 billion to buy off both constituencies.”
It’s incredible to think that over the last five decades, GM has lost U.S. market share, from 54% to 19%. And as the New York Times’ David Brooks points out, “Consumer Reports now recommends 70% of Ford’s vehicles, but only 19% of GM’s.”
“For half a century, between the 1920s and the 1970s, GM seemed to have an instinctive feel for what Americans wanted before consumers themselves even knew it. Chrome, tail fins, muscle cars and even the first catalytic converters that let cars run on lead-free gasoline were developed at GM.
“But the company signed generous labor deals during the 1970s, including the right to retire after 30 years with full pension and benefits, partly because it believed the contracts would cripple its smaller competitors, Ford and Chrysler. Then along came Honda, Nissan and Toyota, which didn’t have to deal with labor contracts at all. That was the beginning of the agonizing decline.”
So the company that brought us the Corvette, the Pontiac GTO and Cadillac is now retooling. Currently, the U.S. owns 60% (not the earlier reported 72.5%), the existing bondholders 10%, the UAW 17.5%, and the Canadian government 12.5%.
At the same time, you had an upheaval across the pond concerning GM’s European division, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel steered into the hands of Canadian auto parts manufacturer Magna International and a Russian financial institution, Sherbank. Merkel was most concerned about the fate of 25,000 GM jobs in Germany and Magna said it would save them, while Italian auto giant Fiat, also looking at GM Europe, particularly for its Opel unit, strongly hinted it would slash more jobs as part of any restructuring. Fiat was too honest…and lost the battle. Some in Germany are upset, though, because Merkel didn’t hold out for an even better deal, while there are those in Italy upset the Italian government didn’t help Fiat more. Italians were hoping Opels would be built in Italy. Now, because of the deal Merkel cut, they could be built in Russia!
In the meantime, GM sold its Hummer division to a heretofore unknown Chinese manufacturer, though now the Chinese government is balking, while the Saturn division is being acquired by the Penske Automotive Group. If anyone can make it work, it’s Roger Penske, a 15-time winner as a car owner at the Indy 500.
But can GM make it? I was struck by a comment made by the CEO of Zipcar on CNBC the other day. Zipcar is a service that allows you to rent a car for an hour or two at a time. In effect you are a fractional owner and the ‘members’ get to select a car of their choice. So if you’re in New York and don’t want to own a car, you can get one anytime you want for that trip to the Hamptons. Maybe you want a BMW, or a Prius, to save on gas.
I know that as a long-time Honda owner (for at least 20 years), I never thought about looking at GM. I certainly won’t over the coming decade, either. If it’s not a Honda, frankly, I’d look at Ford because I loved a Ford Fusion I put 2,000 miles on last fall tooling around South Dakota, Montana and Wyoming. Bottom line, GM hasn’t stood for quality in ages.
And the car business is one of fierce competition these days. It’s easy to forget that there are about 30 legitimate players, worldwide. Both GM and Chrysler have offered an inferior product in the past, though I continue to maintain that Chrysler just might make it due to the Fiat connection. I just can’t say the same about GM.
Lastly, at least in the month of May over April, sales across the sector were generally up, with Ford’s increasing 20%. GM’s and Chrysler’s rose as well though aided by heavy discounting owing to their uncertain condition. For the record, however, following are the May year-over-year comparisons.
Ford down 24%, General Motors down 29%, Chrysler 47%, Toyota 41%, Honda down 41%.
Turning to the week on Wall Street, German Chancellor Merkel stirred up the pot when she attacked the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, suggesting that their monetary policies could lead to a worsening of the economic crisis.
“What other central banks have been doing must stop now. I am very skeptical about the extent of the Fed’s actions and the way the Bank of England has carved its own little line in Europe. Even the European Central Bank has somewhat bowed to international pressure with its purchase of covered bonds [bank debt and mortgages]. We must return to independent and sensible monetary policies, otherwise we will be back to where we are now in 10 years’ time.”
Well, it should be no surprise that a German is worried about the inflationary implications of all the money flooding the global financial system, seeing as the experience of the Weimar Republic and the inflation that paved the way for Hitler is ingrained in every schoolchild; it’s just that German political leaders never criticize central bankers.
“To the Red Sox winning the World Series, we can now add another miracle for the ages: A politician demanding tighter money….
“Usually when a politician lobbies a central bank, it’s to demand easier money. We can’t recall a similar tight-money intervention from a national leader, save perhaps Ronald Reagan’s quiet support for Paul Volcker in the 1980s.”
As the Journal goes on to point out, it was also Merkel who earlier called for spending restraint, which “is already looking wise as the U.S. asks the world to finance a debt burden rising to World War II levels.”
For his part, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, while “respectfully” disagreeing with Merkel and defending Fed policies, did concede that, “Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer run, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.”
Yes, topic A is increasingly the debt. As in governments around the world are now forecast to be issuing $11.69 trillion of it this year, about $1.12 trillion more than 2008, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. My, that’s a lot of paper to push around without your boss finding out just what the hell you’re doing. This week, for example, we had one of those canaries in the coal mine with the failure of a Latvian government auction of just $100 million. Granted, the Latvian economy sucks these days, but if they can’t find buyers at huge interest rates for their stuff, where will the buyers come from for other pieces of crap? [It’s hard to sugarcoat this topic, you understand.]
Meanwhile, despite the above, the world continued to see signs the global economy had bottomed, or was darn close to doing so. As for actual growth, that remains to be seen.
In China, for example, a key purchasing managers index hit 53 in May, the third straight month above 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction. But staying in the region, exports for the month in South Korea fell a worse than expected 28%.
Australia’s GDP for the first quarter, on the other hand, came in at +0.4%. Foster’s all around! It seems the Aussie government is doing a better job than, say, we are, in targeting stimulus programs, plus it’s commodities driven economy is benefiting from a replenishing of the coffers on the natural resources front.
In the UK, the purchasing managers index was still recessionary, 45.4, but this was the best reading in a year. Other highs in the PMI were reached for the eurozone as a whole, as well as India and Australia.
But unemployment, a lagging indicator, continues to rise all over. The eurozone jobless rate in April hit 9.2%, the highest since Sept. 1999, with Germany at 7.7% and Spain at 18.1%.
And of course you have the unemployment rate in the U.S., now 9.4%, the highest since Aug. 1983. I recently said we wouldn’t hit 10.0%, so it’s going to be touch and go (or maybe we just blow right through this level). But the actual non-farm payroll figure for May, a loss of 345,000 jobs, was far better than expected, as awful as the hard number remains.
So, again, the global economy may be bottoming, but with very few exceptions, such as in China and India, actual growth is non-existent and job losses continue to mount.
Yet the global rally in equities marches on. Since the March 9 lows, U.S stocks have risen an incredible 11 of 13 weeks (12 of 13 for Nasdaq). The naysayers have been wrong the entire move up….almost 40% for the S&P and 46% for Nasdaq. It’s been no surprise to me, however, save the rapidity of the rally, because I haven’t changed my tune since the start of the year that we would finish substantially higher, 20-30%. I do admit, though, that we still have a chaotic and hairy seven months to negotiate, including on the geopolitical front; such as the fallout from imminent elections in Lebanon and Iran, let alone the ongoing crisis in North Korea. And we have this debt issue, and potentially much higher interest rates that threaten to choke off any recovery, particularly when it comes to housing in the United States.
–On the week the Dow Jones rose 3.1% to 8763 and is now down just 0.2% on the year. The S&P 500 added 2.3% and is up 4% for ’09, while Nasdaq, up 4.2% for the week, is suddenly up over 17% for the year. Yes, the market isn’t cheap unless companies begin to show some top line (and bottom line) growth. The savings rate is up to 5.7%, and headed higher still, which doesn’t help an economy where the consumer represents 70% of activity.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
Rates rose anew on signs of a recovery, as well as uncertainty in funding the debt.
–A brief comment on two items that capture a lot of attention. While a weak dollar has been a major factor behind the run-up in oil and other commodities, I am not concerned about nations such as Russia and China seeking another home for their reserves outside the greenback. Sure, these two and others will diversify out of the dollar, but nowhere near to the extent that is talked about. At some point it’s a bigger issue, but not now. I view this like the past talk on the deficits. As I’ve pointed out recently, that’s all it was for years, just talk. Then about five weeks ago we did indeed get our sea change. Deficits matter in terms of market behavior. But that doesn’t mean the world abandons the dollar tomorrow. More on this topic next week.
And on the issue of commercial real estate, it is not an issue that will impact the stock market like residential housing did for the simple reason that commercial real estate has zero impact on the wealth effect, except for those investing in it, whereas housing obviously does. Yes, many a bank has serious issues because of ill-advised construction loans, but that doesn’t impact consumer confidence, for example.
–Speaking of a weak dollar and oil, there is another factor at play in oil’s rise to the $70 level on Friday, before closing at $68.40. Speculators, pure and simple. The fundamentals in no way, shape or form warrant today’s price. I nailed the top in crude last year, but admittedly haven’t been playing in the sector in years, after a super run beginning Feb. 1999…the bottom. So I continue to just sit back and look for other opportunities. I can’t play in this pond as it’s been trading the past 18 months or so.
–And back to residential real estate, I’ve said my piece here, ad nauseum. It was encouraging, though, to see an index on pending home sales rise a third consecutive month, another sign of the bottom I’ve called for. Whether or not I was actually right, however, won’t be known until we get the July and August figures, so you can’t throw stones at me on my April-May call until then.
–The biggest overseas deal in Chinese history between Aluminum Corp. of China (Chinalco) and Aussie mining giant Rio Tinto collapsed as Rio shareholders said the terms were only favorable to Chinalco, as well as fears China would have an undue influence on pricing of strategic commodities in Australia. Rio Tinto had turned to Chinalco to help repair a balance sheet weighed down by $38.7 billion in debt. A payment of $8.9 billion is due in October. Needless to say, Chinese officials are ticked off as its shades of the CNOOC deal in 2005 that fell victim to protectionism in the United States when it sought to acquire Unocal, so Chinalco is seeking a $195 million breakup penalty that Rio said it would pay. Bottom line, it’s a blow to China’s efforts to secure key resources for future growth.
As for Rio Tinto, on Friday it turned around and formed a joint venture with countryman BHP Billiton whereby it will raise up to $21 billion through a share offering and an iron ore venture.
–Iraq’s oil minister is under fire for a job poorly done as production is 2.3 million barrels per day vs. 2.5 to 3 million before the invasion in 2003. 90% of government revenues come from the sale of black gold. Goodness gracious. Diversify a bit, will ya?
–This is a bit worrisome. According to a coordinated report by a number of medical associations, the swine flu outbreak overwhelmed the U.S. health-care system. “Worried citizens flood emergency rooms while undocumented immigrants and the uninsured delay getting medical care,” the report said. [Bloomberg]
Of course what’s disconcerting is imagine what the situation will be if we see a second, more serious wave in the fall.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization is closer to declaring H1N1 a pandemic, but wants to be careful to note that the virus is not very lethal, being blamed for only 120 deaths, worldwide, thus far.
–Spain’s mortgage and consumer credit debt is 70% of that nation’s GDP, compared to 45% for the euro region as a whole. The unemployment rate continues to march towards 20%.
–Deflation alert: Consumer prices in the United Arab Emirates fell 2.7% the first four months of the year. And remember the real estate bubble in Dubai? “Residential real-estate prices in Dubai fell an average 41% in the first three months of the year.” [Daily Star]
–The Journal reports that the FDIC is encouraging a purge of Citigroup’s leadership ranks, while the Comptroller of the Currency has countered replacing the bank’s top management would be too disruptive and that CEO Vikram Pandit and team need more time to implement their turnaround strategy. Look for the FDIC and its chief, Sheila Bair, to prevail in this turf war.
–Medical bills caused more than 60% of personal bankruptcies in the U.S. in 2007, according to a study published in the American Journal of Medicine.
–Former Countrywide Financial Corp. CEO Angelo Mozilo and two others were accused of fraud by the SEC in failing to disclose material information as the mortgage business imploded during the subprime crisis. Mozilo is also being charged with insider trading in dumping shares worth $140 million before the extent of Countrywide’s problems was made public.
–In opening about 150 new or expanded stores in the U.S. in 2009, Wal-Mart looks to hire about 22,000 for new positions. The company now has more than 2.1 million employees in the U.S. and abroad.
–Mutual fund giant Capital Research and Management, parent company for American Funds, is laying off over 800, after eliminating 550 late last year.
–This is surprising. Global newspaper sales actually rose last year, albeit up just 1.3%, due to gains in Africa, Asia and Latin America that offset declines in Europe and the U.S. Advertising revenues, however, declined 5% worldwide. [Agence France Presse / World Association of Newspapers]
–Talk about ‘wait 24 hours’…at first it was thought the wreckage of Air France Flight 447 was found. Then two days later we were told…never mind…and thus the mystery deepens as investigators now turn to excessive speed as being a cause, due to the possibility a key external sensor was impaired; though with the aircraft hitting violent winds, updrafts of 100mph that were part of an extremely dangerous storm system, it seems to me that this alone would tear apart any plane.
–United Airlines is preparing an order for up to 150 new airliners, a winner-take-all competition between Boeing and Airbus, as UAL takes advantage of the slow environment in the industry to cut a good deal.
–Apple’s Steve Jobs could be returning from medical leave later this month. The stock has excelled while he was away.
–Bank of America told the U.S. Olympic Committee it will back out of its sponsorship unless it gets more value for its investment. From 2004-2008, BofA paid the USOC over $12 million. Well, for starters, it would be nice if the U.S. track team would learn to hold onto the baton in the 4X100 relays, know what I’m sayin’? Goodness gracious. [Bank of America could be joining Home Depot and General Motors in cutting their ties.]
–The average price for a hotel room in New York City is down 25% from a year ago. Some large mid-town chains are offering rooms for under $200 this summer, so shop around.
–Manchester United is finally replacing the embarrassing AIG logo on its jerseys with Aon, the global financial services company that will now sponsor the world’s best-known soccer power (even though they lost the Champions League Final to Barcelona). Alas, my own ManU shirt is in hiding on the island of Yap in Micronesia.
–Blackstone Group co-founder Pete Peterson said in a new autobiography that Wall Street bonuses created “spoiled and ungrateful schmucks.” He’s got that right; schmuck in this case meaning ‘jerk,’ not the Yiddish derivation.
–Johnson & Johnson will pursue U.S. approval for the world’s first pill to treat premature [redacted] after tests on 6,000 men showed it more than tripled the time before they reached [redacted]. The drug, sold as Priligy in Europe, is taken a few hours before [redacted] to increase the time before the patient [redacted].
–My portfolio: I finally had a decent week with my China biodiesel play (and thus probably jinxed it in bringing it up). I sold the other biodiesel company I had recently purchased for a nice profit after seeing some bad news in the after hours market. It was a classic ‘sell first, ask questions later’ move.
Lebanon: Sunday is the parliamentary election that is as important a vote as Iran’s on June 12. If Hizbullah wins a majority, will President Obama reconsider America’s longstanding relationship with the group? One thing seems clear. The U.S. will have to reassess aid given to the Lebanese Army…and no doubt will cut it off for a spell.
Separately, at least 35 have now been charged here in connection with an Israeli spy ring that includes a former Lebanese Army general. By all readings of the case, it is real, witness how quiet the Israeli government has been.
Iran: French President Nicolas Sarkozy used tougher language against Iranian President Ahmadinejad than Obama used in Cairo, condemning the Iranian leader’s latest questioning of the Holocaust, finding Ahmadinejad’s comments “unacceptable and profoundly shocking.”
Ahmadinejad said, “The identity of the liberal democracy has been exposed to the world by its protection of the most criminal regime in the history of humanity, the Zionist regime, by using the big deception of the Holocaust.”
One of Ahmadinejad’s opponents, former prime minister Moussavi, said Ahmadinejad’s foreign policy has been characterized by “adventure, instability, extremism, exhibitionism, (and) superstition” which had “undermined the dignity of our nation.” [Sydney Morning Herald]
I have seen a number of polls concerning the election and they are all over the board; from a Moussavi victory to an Ahmadinejad landslide. I’ll opt for the latter, meaning the president will receive more than 50% and avoid a run-off.
[The Financial Times says Saturday’s World Cup qualifier, ironically between North Korea and Iran, could damage Ahmadinejad’s reelection hopes should Iran lose this match and another coming up before the vote, 6/10, vs. UAE.]
On the nuclear weapons program issue, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.
“Iran’s easiest path to a nuclear weapon is clear: It is by dividing the rest of us, Europeans from Americans, the Russians and Chinese from the West. It is by pitting Arabs against Arabs in Lebanon, Iraq, the Palestinian Authority and the Gulf, and by stirring up hatred between Muslims and Jews. It is by dividing the Iranian people from the American people when we are otherwise natural allies. It is by dividing us here at home – Democrats and Republicans, conservatives and liberals.
“The best way to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons is equally clear: It is by recognizing that whatever differences divide us on other matters, our shared interest in stopping the Iranian government from getting nuclear weapons is far greater. This is why we must urgently unite to prevent that dangerous result.”
And I just have to reiterate, as I have for months, that regardless of who wins the vote, the nuclear program will continue. As nuclear arms expert Graham Allison wrote in an op-ed for the Washington Post:
“The Iranian nuclear challenge was transformed on President George W. Bush’s watch. Events in Iran have advanced faster than the policy community’s thinking about the problem. [Ed. not mine, I have to add.] The brute fact is that Iran has crossed a threshold that is painful to acknowledge but impossible to ignore. It has lost its nuclear virginity….
“The policy consequences of Iran having gotten this far down the road to a nuclear bomb are profound. These new facts require a fundamental reassessment not only of how we engage Iran but also of what we can realistically hope to achieve….
“The bottom line for American policy is that the menu of feasible options has shrunk. Every option available at this point requires living with an Iran that knows how to enrich uranium. Continued denial of this truth is self-delusion.
“The central policy question becomes: What combination of arrangements, inside and outside Iran, has the best chance of persuading it to stop short of a nuclear bomb? More important than how many centrifuges Iran continues operating at Natanz is how transparent it will be about all of its nuclear activities, including the manufacture of centrifuges. Maximizing the likelihood that covert enrichment will be discovered is the best way to minimize the likelihood that it will be pursued. The best hope for defining a meaningful red line is to enshrine the Iranian leader’s affirmation that Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons in a solemn international agreement that commits Russia and China to join the United States in specific, devastating penalties for violation of that pledge.
“The Obama administration cannot restore Iran’s nuclear innocence. Its challenge is to prevent the birth of the next nuclear-weapons state.”
On Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report that read in part, Iran’s lack of cooperation “gives rise to concerns which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program.”
North Korea: Kim Jong-il’s youngest son, Kim Jong-un (some are spelling it ‘woon’), has been anointed successor, privately, and it may not be formally announced until October. It’s important to note, also, that Kim Jong-il, assuming his health allows him to, could stay on until 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung (“Great Leader”).
But what do we know of the 26-year-old Kim Jong-un, aside from the fact he is western-educated? According to a North Korea specialist, Cheong Seong-chang in Seoul, “Jong-un is known to have the potential to become a strong, ruthless leader. He has a ‘take-charge’ personality.” [The Irish Independent] Let’s hope this is an inaccurate analysis or we could be in for some rough times on the Korean Peninsula. Mr. Cheong, for example, suggests the North’s recent belligerent acts were designed to create a personality cult around the younger Kim. “I think the campaign is aimed at building up achievements that the successor can later claim credit for.”
South Korean spies this week say the nation’s parliament and army have pledged their allegiance to Kim Jong-un, as reported by the Financial Times. We’ve also heard North Koreans are being taught the lyrics to a new song, “Our Commander Kim.” Oh brother.
What also seems clear is the North is indeed making preparations for war. Not that it is their intent to actually do so, but to show its teeth. The North and South have already been shadowboxing in the water, along their respective border.
And Anne Applebaum had an interesting theory in her Washington Post opinion piece. She posits that China may be egging Pyongyang on for a number of reasons, including:
“By permitting North Korea to rattle its sabers, the Chinese can monitor President Obama’s reaction to a military threat – without having to deploy a threat themselves. They can see how serous the new American administration is about controlling the spread of nuclear weapons – without having to risk sanctions or international condemnation of their own nuclear industry. They can distract and disturb the new administration – without harming Chinese American economic relations, which are crucial to their own regime’s stability. And if the game goes badly, they can call it off altogether. North Korea is a puppet state, and the Chinese are the puppeteers. They could end this farce tomorrow. If they haven’t done so yet, there must be a reason.”
And on the issue of the two American journalists now on trial in Pyongyang, as I go to post, former vice president Al Gore is said to be negotiating their release, the two being employed by his television network.
China: 150,000 turned out in Hong Kong to commemorate those killed in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Protesters chanted their demands for vindication of those killed by troops in Beijing and for a democratic China free of corruption.
But in Beijing itself, Tiananmen Square was closed to the public, while the government censored the press, including the likes of CNN, the BBC, and the Financial Times. The Chinese also weren’t happy about Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s call for Beijing to publish the names of those killed or missing in the 1989 crackdown. A foreign ministry spokesman said, “We express strong dissatisfaction to that. We urge the U.S. to put aside its political prejudices and correct its mistakes so as to refrain from undermining bilateral relations.”
Claudia Rosett was a reporter on the scene for the Journal 20 years ago and this week had the following thoughts in an op-ed for the paper.
“The real sign of modernity will come when China opens up its political system enough so that the country’s leaders no longer fear June 4 but treat the Tiananmen uprising with the honor it deserves. During the protests, on one of those warm spring evenings just before the crackdown, I was wandering around Tiananmen, notebook in hand, and came across a young man sitting in a beach chair on the monument where the demonstrators were soon to make their last stand. He had a question about what happens when you get your dream of democracy: What then? As he put it: ‘I know what China is dreaming. What is America dreaming?’
“The answer of free societies, the old American dream, is that you may choose for yourself. Freedom, in the framework of a true democracy, allows individuals to weigh their own talents, skills and ambitions, choose their own tradeoffs, and chart their own dreams. That gives rise to innovation, exuberance and prosperity of a kind that no government can plan or centrally command into existence.
“China today supplies the world with a wealth of such stuff as gym shoes, extremely young gymnasts, loans to the U.S. Treasury, aid to North Korea, and investments in Iran and Sudan. But riches of the spirit are in short supply. On that front, the scene is pretty well summed up by last summer’s kitsch slogan of the Beijing Olympics, ‘One World, One Dream’ – featured, among other places, on a giant billboard in Tiananmen, surrounded by security agents, surveillance cameras, fencing and checkpoints.”
[On a different front, in a sign of the growing rapprochement between China and Taiwan, Taipei said it will significantly reduce its forces on three island groups, including Quemoy, that are near the mainland due to easing tensions. Taiwan once had 120,000 soldiers on these islands, but now is looking to reduce the number to 10,000.]
Iraq: There are growing concerns that when the U.S. pulls its forces out of Iraq’s cities on June 30, per prior agreement, that Mosul, the nation’s 2nd-largest and the last al-Qaeda haven, will erupt in a spasm of violence.
Afghanistan: Britain has now lost more men in combat here than in Iraq, 137 (166 overall, including in non-combat operations). The U.S. toll here is at least 618. Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri released tapes, with bin Laden saying Barack Obama was “antagonizing Muslims.” Here’s hoping a drone finds both on the Fourth of July.
Russia: By all indications, the Kremlin is ready to polish off Georgia in the next few months. Russia was to have long withdrawn its forces (to a bare minimum) from South Ossetia and Abkhazia and instead has only added troops, in open violation of a cease-fire Vladimir Putin brokered with French President Sarkozy. The West will be powerless to respond. As for Ukraine, Moscow can afford to be patient and just let the place disintegrate on its own, allowing its puppet to then pick up the pieces. On Friday, Ukrainian President Yushchenko warned of a “constitutional coup,” and appealed to the EU and the U.S. for aid while his rivals plot against him; Prime Minister Tymoshenko and pro-Russian former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich having formalized a power-sharing agreement.
But what’s this? Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko is slapping Moscow in the face? The Russians, who have sought to form a “union state” of both countries, questioned whether Belarus can keep from going bankrupt and Lukashenko took issue with this. Belarus would not “whine and weep” if things did not work out with Russia but “look for better luck in other parts of the world,” he said. President Medvedev then replied, “We have never tolerated personal characteristics to other countries’ leaders,” according to Interfax and the Moscow Times.
Well that’s pretty rich of Medvedev, seeing as how it was Prime Minister Putin who once said of Georgia’s Mikheil Saakashvili that he could “hang by his balls.”
Yes, every now and then you get a glimpse of Papa Joe Stalin in some of Russia’s utterances.
*And this…two weeks ago, 5/23, I wrote of Russia lying about its history, saying they “are the biggest liars in the world.” I then added, “I know if I was a Pole, for example, I would be hesitant to ever talk to a Russian again.”
Was this too harsh? Hardly. From the Moscow Times, 6/5….
“Poland demanded an explanation from Russia on Thursday after an article blaming Warsaw for starting World War II was published on the Defense Ministry’s web site, setting back attempts to improve strained ties.”
According to the 4,000-word article by a military academic, Poland triggered the war by refusing to meet Adolf Hitler’s demands.
“Germany’s demands were pretty modest – to include the free city of Danzig (Gdansk) in the Third Reich and to allow the construction of an extraterritorial motorway and a railway, which would connect East Prussia with the main part of Germany. One can hardly call the first two demands ungrounded,” wrote Colonel Sergei Kovalyov. Good lord. But it meshes with President Medvedev’s recent call to review Russia’s history because of what he sees as an anti-Russian view of the 20th-century, meaning criticisms of Stalin are about to be censored.
Britain: In normal times, like pre-9/11, this story would probably be at the top of the list, but these days the unraveling of a major democratic government receives short shrift, including here. A number of cabinet secretaries resigned, prompting opposition Conservative party leader David Cameron to say, “Why doesn’t the prime minister accept that his ability to command his cabinet has simply disappeared?” Brown in turn accused his opponents of refusing to talk about the recession. But even the prime minister’s staunchest supporters are beginning to question how long he can last. One secretary, James Purnell, said upon resigning Wednesday evening that Brown must step down to save the Labour Party. But as of Friday, Brown, after reshuffling the cabinet, seemed determined to stick it out.
Meanwhile, the full results of the European Parliament elections will not be released until Sunday, but it appears a far-right, anti-Muslim party, picked up four seats according to a Dutch exit poll. The Freedom Party resonated among those who are against tolerance of immigrants, as espoused by the Netherlands. Leader Geert Wilders has said, “Turkey as an Islamic country should never be in the EU, not in 10 years, not in a million years.” Earlier this year, Wilders was banned from entering Britain for his extreme beliefs.
Italy: Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi continues to face fire over his lifestyle, including the publication of photos in a Spanish newspaper of topless women sunbathing at his seaside villa. Berlusconi is being investigated for his use of state planes to ferry guests to the luxury abode on the island of Sardinia. When asked by a radio interviewer about the photos, which also included a naked man by the poolside, Silvio fired back, “Do you take a shower in a jacket and tie?” Can’t say I have, Mr. Prime Minister. Can’t say I have.
South Africa: President Jacob Zuma gave his first state of the nation address and promised to create half a million new jobs in an effort to fight poverty. He also announced a new national holiday, Mandela Day (July 18…nice idea), promised to deliver “the best World Cup ever” in June 2010 (good luck), promised to cut the murder rate (ditto), and said “every cent must be spent wisely and fruitfully.” Zuma gets a honeymoon in this column for the time being.
Zimbabwe: The few remaining white farmers are distraught that new Prime Minister Tsvangirai hasn’t done more to protect them. 90% of the farming community is gone or leaving.
Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez continued his campaign to exert control over all business as he has targeted the country’s chemical makers, declaring them public utilities.
Mexico: Police found 11 bodies inside an abandoned car, most with their hands and feet cut off; the latest victims in the drug war. The SUV had been stolen in Arizona.
“The Obama infatuation is a great unreported story of our time. Has any recent president basked in so much favorable media coverage? Well, maybe John Kennedy for a moment, but no president since. On the whole, this is not healthy for America.
“Our political system works best when a president faces checks on his power. But the main checks on Obama are modest. They come from congressional Democrats, who largely share his goals if not always his means. The leaderless and confused Republicans don’t provide effective opposition. And the press – on domestic, if not foreign, policy – has so far largely abdicated its role as skeptical observer.
“Obama has inspired a collective fawning. What started in the campaign (the chief victim was Hillary Clinton, not John McCain) has continued, as a study by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism shows. It concludes: ‘President Barack Obama has enjoyed substantially more positive media coverage than either Bill Clinton or George W. Bush during their first months in the White House.’….
“The infatuation matters because Obama’s ambitions are so grand. He wants to expand health-care subsidies, tightly control energy use and overhaul immigration. He envisions the greatest growth of government since Lyndon Johnson. The Congressional Budget Office estimates federal spending in 2019 at nearly 25 percent of the economy [GDP]. That’s well up from the 21 percent in 2008, and far above the post-World War II average; it would also occur before many baby boomers retire.
“Are his proposals practical, even if desirable? Maybe they’re neither? What might be the unintended consequences? All ‘reforms’ do not succeed; some cause more problems than they solve. Johnson’s economic policies, inherited from Kennedy, proved disastrous; they led to the 1970s’ ‘stagflation.’ The ‘war on poverty’ failed. The press should not be hostile, but it ought to be skeptical.
“Mostly it isn’t….Larger issues are minimized, despite ample grounds for skepticism….
“(A) great edifice of government may arise on the narrow foundation of Obama’s personal popularity. Another Pew survey shows that since the election the numbers of both self-identified Republicans and Democrats have declined. ‘Independents’ have increased, and ‘there has been no consistent movement away from conservatism, nor a shift toward liberalism.’
“The press has become Obama’s silent ally and seems in a state of denial. But the story goes untold: Unsurprisingly, the study of all the favorable coverage received little coverage.”
–In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, by more than 2-1, those surveyed said Guantanamo shouldn’t be closed. By more than 3-1, they oppose moving some of the accused terrorists housed there to prisons in their own states; further confirmation that President Obama never should have committed to close Guantanamo by year end without a plan for dealing with the detainees.
–Separately, in an AP-Gfk survey, 52% say torture can be at least sometimes justified to obtain information about terrorist activities from suspects, an increase from 38% in 2005, the last time the AP asked the question.
–In a speech on the Senate floor noting the new Capitol statue of former President Ronald Reagan, John McCain said, “tough minded” policies toward nations seeking to build atomic weapons could also lead to a gradual shift toward worldwide nuclear disarmament.
“This is a difficult and distant goal. And we must proceed toward it prudently and pragmatically, and with a focused concern for our security and the security of our allies who depend on us. But the Cold War ended almost 20 years ago, and the time has come to take further measures to reduce dramatically the number of nuclear weapons in the world’s arsenals. In so doing, the United States can – and indeed, must – show the kind of leadership the world expects from us, in the tradition of American presidents who worked to reduce the nuclear threat to mankind.”
The United States, McCain added, should work to gradually draw down its nuclear stockpile while maintaining “a safe and reliable nuclear deterrent, robust missile defenses, and superior conventional forces capable of defending the United States and our allies.”
But McCain stressed, “The U.S. must lead the world not only in reducing the size of existing nuclear arsenals, but also in reversing the course of nuclear proliferation. This requires a tough, and tough-minded, approach to both Iran and North Korea, both of whom have gotten away with too much for far too long.”
President Obama released a statement thanking McCain for his support and reaffirming his own commitment to nonproliferation and disarmament.
–Dick Cheney is now saying reports by the CIA of a collaboration between Iraq and al-Qaeda on Sept. 11 “turned out not to be true.” The whole issue of whether or not there was a meeting between Mohamed Atta and senior Iraqi intelligence officials in Prague, April 2000, was used as one of the pretexts for the Iraq War.
–Kathleen Parker / Washington Post
“It has long been a problem for the GOP that some of the party’s cherished positions are embraced most enthusiastically by people whose grip on reality is sometimes…tenuous. This is especially true with regard to abortion.
“There are certainly compelling secular arguments against abortion that one might be perfectly willing to hear. Then Randall Terry shows up.
“Terry, the colorful founder of Operation Rescue, doesn’t represent the Republican Party, but he is nevertheless the most familiar face of the antiabortion movement….
“Rather than persuading people to think differently about abortion, [Terry] makes one want to write checks to Planned Parenthood….
“Such is the continuing dilemma of the GOP: how do you get out the message when the messengers keep getting in the way?….
“[Fire-breathers] on the right don’t help, whatever the cause. They may warm the base, but the Republican base is becoming a remote island in mainstream America. Everyone else is paddling away.”
–At least 24 died after drinking rice wine laced with methanol in a poisoning on the island of Bali. The victims bought an adulterated bottle of local wine known as arak. [Yikes, I have arak in the cupboard, but it was bottled in Turkey.] A very small amount of methanol can kill you. Said a doctor on the scene, “When methanol gets into the bloodstream the victim deteriorates very quickly. It attacks the eyes, the liver and the kidneys.” At least four of the victims were tourists.
–One of the true jerks in Congress, Democrat Charlie Rangel of New York, spoke at a rally last Saturday in honor of a slain cop, Omar Edwards, killed in a friendly fire incident. Rangel said that President Obama, in town for his date with the First Lady, should watch his back walking the streets of New York because he is black.
“Make certain he doesn’t run around East Harlem unidentified,” said Rangel, one of the more corrupt members of the House (which is saying a lot). “If [he] did not have the Secret Service…around him, [city cops] wouldn’t know if he was president of the United States.” The idiots in the crowd cheered.
Mayor Bloomberg blasted Rangel and said, “There’s no reason to suspect this had any racial undertones.” It didn’t.
So Rangel released a statement the following day apologizing.
“It was entirely inappropriate to bring the president and his wife into this discussion during their visit to New York.”
But then he added, “I am pleased that [Police] Commissioner Ray Kelly recognizes a racial factor is involved.”
Meanwhile, Rangel is under House investigation for unpaid taxes and lavish junkets to the Caribbean for his Congressional Black Caucus cronies, paid for by lobbyists representing the likes of AT&T, Citigroup and Verizon. This man needs to be given 15 minutes to clean out his office.
–Former prosecutor Chris Christie won the Republican primary here in New Jersey and will face off against Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in what is going to be one of the dirtier races, anywhere, of the decade. I’m so freakin’ tired of all the robo calls that I call for a pox on both their houses.
–The latest FBI crime data reveals that New York is the safest among the 25 largest cities. [Detroit has the highest homicide rate in the land, ahead of Baltimore. Officially, Baltimore is No. 1, but the FBI made a mistake in tabulating the figures, according to a story I just read in the Washington Post, and undercounted Detroit’s tally. So there.]
–Australian researchers have concluded that The Simpsons promotes smoking with its frequent depictions of the habit. Take Krusty the Clown, or the sisters Patty and Selma. They are constantly lighting up, and it’s been proven the more children are exposed to cigarettes in movies and on television, the more likely they were to take it up. Plus you can see how second-hand smoke has stunted Bart’s growth.
–Britain’s ITV took in about $8 million in advertising revenue for the final of Britain’s Got Talent, as Susan Boyle had a meltdown after finishing second. Before the last show the British tabloids were having a field day with her. So there are the usual calls for the ugly British media to tone down their act and this will last, oh, about a week.
–If you have a chance, catch the HBO production, “Into the Storm,” on Churchill, his relationship with his wife, and the conduct of WWII. Outstanding. In fact, in the span of about three weeks, we had two of the best programs of their kind on the war, the other being the PBS series, “World War II: Behind Closed Doors…Stalin, the Nazis and the West.”
–Lastly, of course today, June 6, is more than a bit significant in the history of mankind. And in an effort to save face after dissing Queen Elizabeth II, who didn’t receive an invitation to the D-Day commemorations, Prince Charles is going in her stead upon the invitation of the French, though it is really Gordon Brown’s fault this ever became an issue.
“Field Marshal von Rundstedt, breakfasting at his headquarters outside Paris, still thought that the landings were a diversion, and that the real invasion would take place in the Pas de Calais, though he took the precaution of alerting two of four Panzer divisions. Hitler was asleep in Berchtesgaden; his naval aide decided not to wake him until more information was available. Field Marshal Rommel was home in Herrlingen, and in the confusion nobody thought to call him until 10:15. He alone understood at once that this was not a diversion, but the real thing – the invasion he had been preparing for. ‘How stupid of me,’ he repeated as his aide gave him the details over the phone. By 1:00 in the afternoon, he was in his car on the way back to France, urging his driver on – Tempo! Tempo! Tempo! he called out, as the big Horch sped down the road.
“Cautiously, the most Ike would say was that the landings were going ‘fairly well’; but at 9:33 in the morning he at last ordered his press aide, Col. Ernest Dupuy, to announce: ‘Under the command of General Eisenhower, Allied naval forces, supported by strong air forces, began landing Allied armies this morning on the northern coast of France.’
“Characteristically, Ike did not make the announcement himself, but this made no difference – around the world people stopped what they were doing to listen to the radio. In Britain work ceased and men and women stood and sang ‘God Save the King’ spontaneously. In Philadelphia the Liberty Bell was rung, and church bells rang out in jubilation all across the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. In America so many people called friends and families to tell them the news that telephone switchboards were jammed across the nation. In the House of Commons, Churchill, artfully keeping the members in suspense as he told them of the liberation of Rome, said, at last, ‘I have also to announce to the House that during the night and the early hours of this morning the first of the series of landings in force upon the European continent has taken place – in this case the liberating assault fell upon the coast of France.’ He went on to say, ‘There is a brotherhood in arms between us and our friends of the United States…There is complete confidence in the Supreme Commander, General Eisenhower.’ From all over the world – except, as Churchill would say, ‘in the abodes of the wicked’ – congratulations poured in. Even Stalin cabled, ‘It brings joy to us all.’ The normally staid London Times commented, ‘At last the tension has broken.’”
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
Returns for the week 6/1-6/5
Dow Jones +3.1% [8763]
S&P 500 +2.3% [940]
S&P MidCap +3.6%
Russell 2000 +5.7%
Nasdaq +4.2% [1849]
Returns for the period 1/1/09-6/5/09
Bears 25.3 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
*Congratulations to our Lamb in Command creator, my brother, Harry, for yet another honor in the field of political cartooning, as he captured first place in the New Jersey Society of Professional Journalists for his work at The Item. Good job, Bro. Premium beer on me.
