Wed., Aug. 5, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Aug. 5…regular $4.08…diesel $5.36
Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed route for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a potential step toward a reopening of the waterway for energy supplies.
A joint statement from Tehran and Muscat is under review and in the final drafting stage, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Wednesday, according to a post on Telegram. Negotiations between the two countries are “forward-moving” and a deal would be struck “if certain third parties do not obstruct this process,” he said.
Iran and Oman have been in discussions about a management plan for the Strait. Baghaei didn’t mention any role of Washington in the statement, except to say the closure of the Strait was a result of attacks by the U.S. and Israel.
President Trump has been saying for days a deal was imminent, but that it would involve the U.S.
Iranian state TV earlier played down the outcome of the Iran-Oman discussions, citing a person familiar with the matter as saying an agreement between Tehran and Muscat would not necessarily mean the Strait would open immediately. That would be contingent “on a change in U.S. behavior,” according to the report.
According to Axios, the U.S., Iran and Oman are close to a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the waterway without tolls. One idea being explored over the past few days was Iran would control traffic going into the Persian Gulf, and Oman would control the traffic exiting the Gulf.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told state-run IRNA that Iran and Oman are negotiating a “temporary rout” that would remain active for two to four months, with a significant portion of traffic passing through the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters. “This understanding does not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.
As you can imagine, oil initially rallied on the news to below $75 on WTI, with gasoline futures below $2.85.
We are waiting for word from the White House.
On a related issue, Trump has been blasting Big Oil for not getting prices down at the pump fast enough and as we all learned in 8th grade, that’s not how things work…it takes time when it comes to the refinery process (refiners may be processing more expensive oil than what is in the water, waiting to be unloaded, for example) and then how it’s translated at the retail level and ExxonMobil and Chevron have little to do with what you pay at the pump.
So, I couldn’t help but note some excerpts from an editorial in the Wall Street Journal on the topic:
“Everyone knows President Trump plays the role of political populist, but sometimes all you can do is laugh. Take his lashing Monday of American oil companies for ‘making too much money.’ ….
“Oil and gas giants always make more money when oil prices rise, as they have given the threat to oil supplies from Mr. Trump’s war with Iran. But this is the same industry that Mr. Trump has been cheering for producing more oil in the U.S. Does he want the companies to make less money so they’ll have less to invest in exploration and drilling? Which is it, sir? ….
“Mr. Trump’s recent financial disclosure report showed he made some $1.4 billion last year on crypto alone. His Truth Social platform last Saturday launched a service that sells faster access to his often news-breaking posts. Oil prices – to take one example – often gyrate in response to his posts about the war.
“Oil and gas giants make money by producing a valuable commodity. Some uncharitable populist might say Mr. Trump is commoditizing the Presidency.”
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Stocks were mixed on the day, the Dow Jones hitting another record high, while the S&P and Nasdaq floundered a bit.
The SpaceX earnings report was solid in one respect, worrisome in another, as in how can the company afford all of CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious plans? It’s been burning through a ton of cash as it is, even with the IPO raise.
The shares were at $110 this afternoon, down 12%, and well off the $135 IPO price. And tomorrow we have the expiration of a lockup, and 911 million insider and employee shares becoming eligible to hit the market.
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Dow Jones +263…+0.5% [54349…record]
S&P 500 -12…-0.2% [7723]
Nasdaq -221…-0.8% [26363]
Oil (WTI) $75.10…Brent $79.40
Gold $4250…big jump, 4%+
Silver $62.07…ditto, 4%+
Bitcoin $64,804 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.18%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.62%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.79%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
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