Mon., Aug. 24, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Aug. 24…regular $4.09…diesel $5.61
Over the past month, ‘regular’ is down a penny, but diesel is up 37 cents!
[Reminder: my pet peeve is you don’t round up futures prices, bond yields, or stock indexes, and I treat AAA’s prices the same way…a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.708% is 4.70%, not 4.71%. A Dow Jones up 100.62 is Dow up 100, not 101. But today, you’ll think, hey, Editor, AAA said the average price on regular is $4.0991…that’s $4.10. Nope, it’s $4.09, even if everyone else is calling it $4.10.]
Over the weekend, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for an end to the war with the U.S., stating that Tehran holds a position of strength as diplomatic talks remain stalled.
“It is better that we bring this war to an end now as we are in a position of power and dignity,” Pezeshkian said in a meeting with doctors. “The whole world acknowledges our victory and emphasizes that America has attacked our schools, hospitals and infrastructure in violation of all regulations and is hated around the world.”
Pezeshkian’s authority is subordinate to Iran’s supreme leader, and he also defended the June memorandum of understanding (MOU), against hardline domestic critics in parliament, who accused his administration of giving concessions to the U.S.
“They cannot find even a single clause in this agreement that indicates capitulation. All the commitments concern the other side,” he said.
But the military, the hardliners, continue with their harsh rhetoric.
“If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner,” Mohsen Rezaei told the state broadcaster in an interview Saturday. He said Iran would target oil-shipping routes out of the Persian Gulf – alternatives to the Strait – if neighbors join in.
Rezaei is the new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, having been a Revolutionary Guard commander and military adviser to the supreme leader.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then announced his Economic D-Day sanctions on Iran this afternoon. He called it an “unprecedented” U.S. campaign to sever Iran from the global economy, warning that any state doing business with the country risks facing U.S. sanctions.
“We are launching an economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe,” Bessent said at a press conference in Washington. He called the move “economic asphyxiation of this regime.”
Bessent said President Trump is calling world leaders with “specific requests to cease their interactions with the regime.” He said countries have what he called a defined timeline to shut down economic cooperation with Iran, and if they don’t, Treasury will act unilaterally.
Iran has weathered decades of U.S. sanctions, and many of the most obvious targets for American economic pressure have already been hit.
In April, Bessent had announced what he called “Economic Fury” against Iran.
Asked today if the U.S. was prepared to cut off major Chinese banks for facilitating trade with Iran, Bessent said, “no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions.” He didn’t mention China – or any other country – by name, saying the best way to engage was through quiet diplomacy.
I’m not impressed…BUT…because of the military’s actions, in the real world, Iran is facing mounting fuel shortages as the U.S. squeezes its access to imports, stretching supplies of a commodity that’s previously sparked bouts of unrest in the country.
Of course, that unrest was inevitably brutally put down, but this time could be different because of the import aspect.
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Trade talks between the United States and Canada broke down late Friday night when during the day, an agreement was looking to be finalized, President Trump having extended the deadline three days because he said an agreement was close.
The U.S. then imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods early on Saturday, which risked escalation into an all-out trade war.
Canadian Prime Minister mark Carney said late Friday that last-minute changes from the U.S. side “were unfair, uneconomic and called into question the reliability of any deal.” He said that he would impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and introduce support for Canadian workers in the coming day.
“In recent weeks, we made important progress toward improving Canada’s position as having the best deal in the world with the U.S.,” Carney said in a statement. “However, that progress has not been enough to meet our objectives for Canadians.”
The U.S. had considered a plan that included cutting its steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada in half, as well as lowering automotive tariffs*. In a meeting with Canada’s provincial premiers, Carney told them to be ready to put U.S. alcohol back on the shelves in the event of a deal.
*U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum were to be reduced from 50% to 25%, and on Canadian autos from 25% to 15%.
But Carney said the administration “asked too much and offered too little.” He said the U.S. added last-minute terms that would have reduced tariff relief for Canadian-made vehicles, restricted Canada’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries and weakened protections for language, culture and sovereignty.
He said such demands were “unacceptable.”
President Trump then posted on Truth Social this morning:
“Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years. Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible for these great American Patriots, and has long created a 60 Billion Dollar Deficit between our two Countries. Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE! On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%. Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS. Canada will be treated like a State no longer1 On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst Nations in the World to deal with. They feel entitled, and yet, WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US! They do 95% of their business with the U.S., with us, the exact opposite!”
There are a lot of lies in that ‘Truth,’ as Trump likes to call them. But what’s important is that President Trump knows this is an issue that will only hurt him in the midterms with some key races in states where trade with Canada is very important.
So, he’s provided some breathing space giving the nations over four months to come back to the table before the higher levies would take effect next year…and get beyond the midterms.
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Stocks finished mixed. Crude oil fell over 2%, and, importantly, gasoline futures did as well. But I’ll have more on the diesel story tomorrow.
Big week for both stocks and bonds. We have the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE, on Wednesday, as well as Nvidia’s earnings that evening.
And then Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s big speech in Jackson Hole on Friday.
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Song that’s on my brain…and now maybe yours…The Association’s “Goodbye Columbus,” the title theme song for the movie that introduced the world to Ali MacGraw! It only peaked at #80 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. It was worthy of better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USyZ9D5_iL4
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Dow Jones +140…+0.3% [53417]
S&P 500 -21…-0.3% [7652]
Nasdaq -200…-0.8% [25980]
Oil (WTI) $85.00…Brent $92.00
Gold $4650
Silver $68.80
Bitcoin $78,730 [4:00 PM ET…solid move off the lows continues…]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.23%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.70%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.86%
Back Tues.
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Brian Trumbore
Drop me a line…briannovak24@gmail.com.
