Wed., Aug. 26, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Aug. 26…regular $4.10…diesel $5.62
Crude oil pared earlier losses, WTI having fallen to just below $80 this morning, before rallying back to $82. There are signs of increased flows from the Persian Gulf, easing supply concerns, while traders are closely watching talks between Iran and Oman over an interim framework aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but there are no details. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps claims a toll will be charged (though the ‘moderates’ in the regime say it would not be a toll). Regardless, it’s a potential arrangement that wouldn’t be acceptable to the United States.
President Trump said around 10 million barrels of oil had passed through the Strait yesterday, but I’d hardly trust this coming out of his mouth.
EIA data showed crude inventories were virtually unchanged last week, while gasoline and diesel stocks fell to seasonal lows. Diesel stocks remain 12-13% below the five-year average ahead of fall maintenance and the winter heating season.
Gasoline futures had a major reversal today. After falling to $3.21, they rallied back to $3.33 early this afternoon, though at 3:00 PM were $3.29.
Ukraine continues to strike major Russian refineries, while Moscow extended its gasoline export ban.
Meanwhile, China warned that it would “take all necessary measures” and retaliate against the U.S. if any of its companies are included in the Trump administration’s new secondary sanctions targeting Iran.
Companies based in Hong Kong and mainland China were among the entities targeted by the U.S. after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” on Monday.
The U.S., however, stopped short of listing large Chinese financial institutions, with Beijing – Iran’s largest oil buyer – warning that it will do whatever it takes to protect its economic interests.
“China has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or the authorization of the UN Security Council,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, addressing reporters Tuesday.
Lin maintained that China’s business with Iran will continue uninterrupted while also calling for the war to end and for the Strait to reopen.
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On the economic data front, today we had the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) for July and the figure was 0.2% on headline, ex-food and energy 3.7% year-over-year, both a tick higher than expectations. On core, ex-food and energy, the figures were exactly as forecast, 0.3% and 3.3%…this last one the ‘money ball.’ 3.3% is not the Fed’s targeted 2%.
Personal income was up 0.4%, consumption 0.2%.
We also had a second look at second-quarter GDP, unchanged at 1.5%. It was 2.1% in Q1. And July durable goods were stronger than consensus.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for third-quarter growth is up to 4.6%.
And now we await Nvidia’s critical earnings report after the close. And Fed Chair Warsh’s big speech in Jackson Hole on Friday.
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Dow Jones -113…-0.2% [53463]
S&P 500 -1…-0.02% [7675]
Nasdaq -21…-0.1% [26130]
Oil (WTI) $81.95…Brent $87.50
Gold $4595
Silver $68.20
Bitcoin $78,445 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.22%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.66%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.87%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
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