Tues., Sept. 15, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., Sept. 15…regular $4.32…diesel $6.26 [record]
Crude oil (WTI) was soaring anew this afternoon. At 12:30 PM ET, WTI was nearing $106, Brent $109.
Just as importantly, gasoline and heating oil (read diesel) futures were soaring as well; heating oil hitting one new record after another, just like you’ve seen with diesel above.
On the crude front, it didn’t help that Saudi Arabia said its crucial East-West pipeline, hit by drones from Iraq (via the Houthis) late last week, is not likely to be back online for weeks, according to Saudi officials. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said today in an interview that Saudi Arabia was back to moving more of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. Navy escorts.
But the fact is, Saudi Arabia’s oil production in August was its lowest for any month since 1990 (as I wrote in last week’s ‘Week in Review’).
Meanwhile, the Houthis seized two more strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, giving the Iran-backed militia further control over this alternative route to the Persian Gulf.
There are fears that Yemen is inching closer to a civil war, which killed 150,000 before a 2022 ceasefire.
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We’ve had turmoil in the global bond market. Very early this morning, like 4:00 AM ET (I was working) the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 5.04% (highest since 2007), the 2-year 4.69%.
But the average 10-year yield for the Group of Seven largest economies hit 4.285%, the highest since mid-2008 and a full percentage point above where it was prior to the start of the war in the Middle East.
Japan’s 10-year bond hit a three-decade high above 3%.
Germany’s 10-year yield hit 3.55% (before closing at 3.53%), its highest since 2009, while French 10-year yields were hovering near an 18-year high and the UK 10-year yield, at 5.45%, was at its highest since 2007 (though it closed at 5.39%).
As we approach the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow, one of the problems for the market is Chair Kevin Warsh’s dislike of forward guidance, meaning uncertainty – and therefore, volatility – is picking up and investors are less willing to offer policymakers the benefit of the doubt.
Said one strategist based in Europe, Shriya Samarth: “You’ve got AI capex throwing a spanner in the works. You’ve got fiscal anxiety. U.S. debt is now at $40 trillion. Historic high debt to GDP ratios in the UK and the euro zone, that’s adding to complications.”
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Separately, a Defense Department inspector general for Congress report released Sept. 14, revealed Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and other structures at U.S. bases across eight countries in the Middle East, as well as aircraft.
The report covers the start of the war on Feb. 28 through June 30. It offers the most comprehensive official account of the war’s cost and impact on U.S. military bases and equipment.
The war has cost at least $33.4 billion as of June 29, according to the report, but the figure does not account for repairs to damaged facilities and many experts believe the total cost of the war is significantly higher.
The report confirmed that Iran targeted the U.S. Navy’s main logistics hub in Bahrain with drones and ballistic missiles.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment about the watchdog report.
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Stocks fell, again, as oil (and bond yields) rose. That’s the way the markets roll these days.
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Dow Jones -328…-0.6% [52093]
S&P 500 -34…-0.5% [7585]
Nasdaq -204…-0.8% [25981]
Oil (WTI) $105.70…Brent $108.65
Gold $4295
Silver $63.70
Bitcoin: $76,126 [4:00 PM ET…big decline due to failure of the ‘Clarity Act’ to advance in the Senate]
U.S. 2-year. 4.66%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.00%
Japanese 10-yr. 3.03%
Back Wed.
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Brian Trumbore
